Thursday, March 22, 2012

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 3-22-12 (trusted: contact@actionforex.com)

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Action Insight Weekly Report Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Dollar Jumps on Poor Global Data, Firm after Solid US Employment Data

Global economic data drove dollar higher today. PMI data from China and Eurozone came in much weaker than expected and triggered some selloff in European stocks. Retail sales from UK and Canada also missed expectation while GDP data from New Zealand was disappointing. However, better than expectation job market data from US gives markets a breathe in early US session and provides some stabilization. After all, dollar index should be heading back to 80 level and the greenback should be starting to build up some momentum

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Featured Technical Report

USD/CAD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9884; (P) 0.9910; (R1) 0.9945; More...

USD/CAD rises sharply to as high as 0.9999 so far today and the break of 0.9968 minor resistance flipped intraday bias back to the upside for 1.0028. As noted before, we're slightly favoring the case that fall from 1.0522 is finished at 0.9841 on mild bullish convergence condition in daily MACD. Break of 1.0028 will target 100% projection of 0.9841 to 1.0028 from 0.9860 at 1.0047 and then 161.8% projection at 1.0063.

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Special Report

BOE Members Remained Divided On Asset Program

The BOE's minutes for the March meeting indicated that policymakers remained split in the asset buying program. Adam Posen and David Miles supported more stimulus (adding an additional 25 pound) as it was 'warranted to reduce the risk that persistently weak growth would damage the future supply capacity of the economy'. Yet, the proposal was overruled by the remaining 7 members to maintain the program as it was.

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Economic Indicators Update

GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
21:45 NZD GDP Q/Q Q4 0.30% 0.60% 0.80% 0.70%
21:45 NZD GDP Y/Y Q4 1.80% 2.20% 1.90%
23:50 JPY Trade Balance (JPY) Feb -0.31T -0.34T -0.61T -0.49T
02:30 CNY HSBC Flash China Manufacturing PMI Mar 48.1 49.7 49.6
07:00 CHF Trade Balance (CHF) Feb 2.68B 1.80B 1.55B 1.50B
08:30 EUR German PMI Manufacturing Mar A 48.1 51 50.2
08:30 EUR German PMI Services Mar A 51.8 53.1 52.8
09:00 EUR Eurozone PMI Manufacturing Mar A 47.7 49.5 49
09:00 EUR Eurozone PMI Services Mar A 48.7 49.2 48.8
09:30 GBP Retail Sales M/M Feb -0.80% -0.50% 1.20% 0.60%
09:30 GBP Retail Sales Y/Y Feb 1.00% 2.30% 1.90% 1.10%
09:30 GBP Retail Sales w/Auto Fuel M/M Feb -0.80% -0.50% 0.90% 0.30%
09:30 GBP Retail Sales w/Auto Fuel Y/Y Feb 1.00% 2.40% 2.00% 1.40%
10:00 EUR Eurozone Industrial New Orders Y/Y Jan -3.30% -3.10% -1.70% -0.40%
12:30 CAD Retail Sales M/M Jan -0.50% 1.80% -0.20%
12:30 CAD Retail Sales Less Autos M/M Jan 0.50% 0.40% 0.00%
12:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims 348K 350K 351K
14:00 USD House Price Index M/M Jan 0.20% 0.70%
14:00 USD Leading Indicators Feb 0.60% 0.40%
14:30 USD Natural Gas Storage 10B -64B
15:00 EUR Eurozone Consumer Confidence Mar A -19.8 -20.3

Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency slipped again in European session on risk aversion after the releases of soft China manufacturing PMI and eurozone PMI, stops below 1.3170 and 1.3140 were triggered, however, fresh demand from Eastern European names emerged again and bids from them are still noted at 1.3120-30 with more stops tipped below 1.3120 and 1.3090-00. On the upside, offers are lowered to 1.3190-00 and 1.3240-50 with stops building up above 1.3255-60, followed by mixture of offers and stops in very good size at 1.3280-90 with stops building up above 1.3300 option barrier.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD – Sell at 1.5855

Despite intra-day initial brief rise to 1.5893, cable ran into heavy offers there and dropped sharply in line with our expectations, adding credence to our view that top has been formed at 1.5924 and consolidation with downside bias remains for retracement of the rise from 1.5603 towards 1.5749 (previous resistance), however, reckon 1.5726 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.5603-1.5924) would remain intact, bring another rally later.

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Trade Idea: AUD/USD – Sell at 1.0480

Aussie has tumbled after meeting renewed selling interest at 1.0637 and bearishness remains for the fall from 1.0857 top to extend weakness to 1.0350 and then 1.0320-30, however, near term oversold condition should limit downside to 1.0300 and price should stay well above 1.0250-60, bring a corrective rebound later today or tomorrow.

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights


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