Wednesday, March 28, 2012

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 3-28-12 (trusted: contact@actionforex.com)

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Action Insight Weekly Report Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Dollar Recovers Mildly after Weak Durables, Sterling Drops on GDP Revision

Dollar is trying to rebound as risk sentiments are hurt by disappointing US durables and UK GDP. Headline durables in US rose 2.2% in February, below expectation of 2.9%. Meanwhile, ex-transport orders also rose less than expected by 1.6% versus consensus of 2.0%. European major indices failed to sustain earlier gains and dipped mildly while US futures point to slightly lower open. Most major currencies are mildly lower against dollar as risk appetite recedes in quarter end trading. Though, Sterling and Aussie are particularly weak.

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Featured Technical Report

GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5927; (P) 1.5963; (R1) 1.5985; More...

GBP/USD formed a temporary top at 1.6000 and dipped sharply since then. But with 1.5800 minor support intact, near term outlook remains bullish and further rally is still in favor. Prior break of 1.5991 resistance confirmed resumption of rise from 1.5234. Further rally should be seen to 1.6165 key cluster resistance (61.8% retracement of 1.6746 to 1.5234 at 1.6168). However, break of 1.5600 will mix up the near term outlook and turn focus back to 1.5602 support instead.

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Economic Indicators Update

GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
08:00 EUR Eurozone M3 Y/Y Feb 2.80% 2.40% 2.50%
08:30 GBP GDP Q/Q Q4 F -0.30% -0.20% -0.20%
08:30 GBP GDP Y/Y Q4 F 0.50% 0.70% 0.70%
08:30 GBP Current Account (GBP) Q4 -8.5B -8.4B -15.2B -10.5B
12:00 EUR German CPI M/M Mar P 0.30% 0.30% 0.70%
12:00 EUR German CPI Y/Y Mar P 2.20% 2.10% 2.30%
12:30 USD Durable Goods Orders Feb 2.20% 2.90% -4.00% -3.70%
12:30 USD Durables Ex Transportation Feb 1.60% 2.00% -3.20% -3.00%
14:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories -1.2M

Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: Although the single currency rebounded to 1.3374, offers ahead of yesterday's high of 1.3385 capped euro's upside and price has retreated again in part due to comments from ECB's Weidmann on eurozone problems, however, bids are still noted at 1.3310-15 and also at 1.3280-90 with more buying interests tipped further out at 1.3250-60. On the upside, stops are building up above 1.3400 option barrier but fresh offers should emerge ahead of another barrier at 1.3450. Option expires today include 1.3300 and 1.3400.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD – Buy at 1.5850

Despite yesterday’s brief rise to 1.6002, lack of follow through buying on break of previous resistance at 1.5999 and the subsequent retreat suggest consolidation would be seen and current breach of the Ichimoku cloud bottom signals near term downside risk has increased for a stronger retracement to 1.5859 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.5770-1.6002) , however, reckon 1.5820 would hold, bring rebound later.

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Trade Idea: AUD/USD – Sell at 1.0630

Although aussie has retreated after rising to 1.0558 yesterday, as long as support at 1.0336 (last week’s low) holds, further consolidation would be seen and another corrective bounce cannot be ruled out, above said resistance would bring retracement of recent decline to 1.6000, however, previous resistance at 1.0637 (last week’s high) should limit upside and bring another decline later.

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

 


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