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Daily Report: Dollar Extends Post POMC GainsDollar maintains post FOMC gains and remains firm in Asian session today. Asian equities are broadly higher after DOW broke 13000 level to close at 13177, up 1.68%. Strong risk appetite sent Japanese yen lower but didn't impact the greenback so far. Dollar index is holding firm above 80 level. Gold breached recent low of 1662 overnight and is set to dip further. Among European majors, Sterling is relatively more resilient as supported by buying in crosses against Euro. Meanwhile, commodity currencies are steady in range. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
GBP/JPY Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 128.86; (P) 129.62; (R1) 130.99; More GBP/JPY rises to as high as 130.60 so far today and the break of 130.13 resistance confirms resumption of rally from 117.29. Intraday bias is back on the upside and further rally should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 140.02 to 116.83 at 131.16. Break will target a test on 140.02 next. On the downside, below 128.17 support is needed to signal short term topping. Otherwise, near term outlook will remain bullish even in case of retreat. |
| Featured Technical Report |
Fed Turns More Hawkish As Economic Data ImprovesAs expected, policymakers delivered a more hawkish statement after the March FOMC meeting. Changes in languages in several areas indicated that the central bank has turned more confident in the economic outlook. This has in turn lowered speculations for further QE later this year. The Fed decided to left the Fed funds rate unchanged at 0-0.25% at least until late 2014 and to continue operation twist announced in September. The 'most hawkish' member Richmond Fed President Lacker dissented the decision as he believes that economic conditions are unlikely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the Fed funds rate through late 2014. BOJ Expands Loan Scheme To Stimulate GrowthAfter the two-day BOJ meeting, policymakers announced to expand a loan scheme, by 2 trillion yen, to 5.5 trillion yen. A board member did propose further easing by increasing the central bank's asset purchases by 5 trillion but failed to gain support from others. Indeed, the loan scheme extension can also be considered as monetary easing but the magnitude and the form are probably insufficient to boost the Japanese economy and inflation. |
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Orders and Options Watch | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
European Session: Orders and Options WatchEUR: The single currency slipped again overnight in late New York as Fed gave signs that there is no immediate need for QE3, stops below 1.3045-50 were finally triggered and stops below 1.3025 are now in focus, followed by mixture of bids and stops at 1.3000-10 (option related), fresh bids from Asian sovereign names are likely to emerge from 1.2980 down to 1.2950. On the upside, offers from various parties area lined up at 1.3070-80 and also at 1.3120-25 with some stops building up above 1.3130 and 1.3155-60. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Trade Idea: USD/CHF – Buy at 0.9210The greenback found renewed buying interest around the upper Kumo and the Kijun-Sen and has rallied again, suggesting recent upmove is still in progress and a test of previous resistance at 0.9300 would be seen, however, break there is needed to retain bullishness and extend headway to 0.9320-30, then towards 0.9350 but near term overbought condition should limit upside and bring correction later. Trade Idea: USD/JPY – Buy at 82.10As the greenback rallied after finding renewed buying interest just above the Ichimoku cloud bottom, suggesting recent upmove is still in progress and gain to 83.50 is likely, however, loss of near term upward momentum should prevent sharp move beyond 83.75 and risk from there has increased for a retreat later, below the Kijun-Sen (now at 82.65) would bring retracement to the Ichimoku cloud top (now at 82.31), however, the lower Kumo (now at 82.06) should limit downside, bring another rally later. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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