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Daily Report: EUR/CHF Jumped ahead of SNB, Fitch Downgraded UK Rating OutlookEUR/CHF jumped sharply over night and is back trading above 1.21 level as markets are awaiting SNB rate decision. The bank is expected to leave rates unchanged and maintain it's pledge to keep the 1.2 EUR/CHF floor. SNB is still sticking to it's plan to name a new president in April. Swiss parliament voted to keep SNB's independence yesterday even though there were politicians calling for further effort from the bank to weaken the Swiss Franc. One Swiss Social Democrats urged EUR/CHF floor to be raised to 1.4 or higher. But we'd expect the floor to be unchanged at least before interim president Thomas Jordan takes up the role permanently. Hence, we'll treat the current jump in EUR/CHF with a cautious attitude and won't turn bullish from neutral before we see sustained trading above 1.2127 resistance. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
USD/JPY Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 83.12; (P) 83.48; (R1) 84.09; More... USD/JPY rises to as high as 84.17 so far and intraday bias remains on the upside for the moment. Rally from 76.02 should target 85.51 key resistance next. On the downside, below 83.57 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidation. But retreat should be contained above 81.86 resistance turned support and bring another rally. |
| Featured Technical Report |
Fed Turns More Hawkish As Economic Data ImprovesAs expected, policymakers delivered a more hawkish statement after the March FOMC meeting. Changes in languages in several areas indicated that the central bank has turned more confident in the economic outlook. This has in turn lowered speculations for further QE later this year. The Fed decided to left the Fed funds rate unchanged at 0-0.25% at least until late 2014 and to continue operation twist announced in September. The 'most hawkish' member Richmond Fed President Lacker dissented the decision as he believes that economic conditions are unlikely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the Fed funds rate through late 2014. BOJ Expands Loan Scheme To Stimulate GrowthAfter the two-day BOJ meeting, policymakers announced to expand a loan scheme, by 2 trillion yen, to 5.5 trillion yen. A board member did propose further easing by increasing the central bank's asset purchases by 5 trillion but failed to gain support from others. Indeed, the loan scheme extension can also be considered as monetary easing but the magnitude and the form are probably insufficient to boost the Japanese economy and inflation. |
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Orders and Options Watch | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
European Session: Orders and Options WatchCHF: Although the greenback rose marginally to 0.9335 (3 pips above yesterday’s high of 0.9332), dollar ran into heavy offers there and has retreated in European opening on profit-taking ahead of Swiss economic forecast and SNB rate decision later today. At the moment, mixture of bids and stops is located at 0.9240-50 and bigger stops are placed below 0.9200-10 and also 0.9180. On the upside, offers are noted at 0.9310-20 and also from 0.9335 up to 0.9350. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Trade Idea: USD/JPY – Buy at 82.75Although the greenback extended recent rise to as high as 84.19, the subsequent retreat from there suggests consolidation would be seen and below the Kijun-Sen (now at 83.63) would bring retracement to the Ichimoku cloud top (now at 82.86), however, renewed buying interest should emerge above the Ichimoku cloud bottom and bring another rise later. A break of said resistance would extend recent upmove towards 84.50 Trade Idea: EUR/USD – Stand asideDespite intra-day brief fall to 1.3005 (yesterday’s low was 1.3011), lack of follow through selling and the subsequent rebound suggests a temporary low is possibly formed and consolidation with mild upside bias is seen for test of 1.3085-90 (current level of the lower Kumo and yesterday’s high) but break there is needed to confirm and bring retracement of recent decline to the upper Kumo (now at 1.3112) and then 1.3150 Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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