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| Action Insight Weekly Report | Markets Snapshot |
Mid-Day Report: Euro Recovered Mildly as Greek Fear Receded, But Remains VulnerableEuro recovers mildly against dollar today together with European equities as Greek fears recede slightly. France's Societe Generale SA, Italy's Assicurazioni Generali SpA and UniCredit SpA said they'll join the debt swap program. German Development Bank KfW also expressed their participation. Greece's six largest banks National Bank of Greece SA, Alpha Bank SA, EFG Eurobank Ergasias, Piraeus Bank SA, Agricultural Bank of Greece and TT Hellenic Postbank SA will join. Also, the twelve members of the steering committee that formulated the deal will join. That include nine non-Greek banks, BNP Paribas SA, Deutsche Bank AG and Commerzbank, Allianz SE, Axa SA, CNP Assurances SA, Greylock Capital Management, ING Bank and Intesa Sanpaolo SpA. Though, four Greek pension funds refused to join and other funds holding around EUR 6b of bonds need to decide soon. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
EUR/USD Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.3069; (P) 1.3147 (R1) 1.3191; More.... EUR/USD recovers mildly today but with 1.3241 minor resistance intact, intraday bias remains on the downside. As noted before, whole rebound from 1.2625 has likely finished with three waves up to 1.3486 already. Current fall should target 1.2974 for confirmation. Also, EUR/USD is still maintaining the pattern of lower highs, lower lows since 1.4939. Below 1.2974 will also suggest that fall from 1.4939 is resuming for another flow below 1.2625. On the upside, above 1.3241 minor resistances will turn bias neutral first. |
| Special Report |
China Watch: China To Seek Lower Growth, Widen RMB Floating BandWhile we are just in the beginning of the annual National People's Congress in Beijing (started on March 5 and is expected to last for 10 days), several surprises have already been delivered. First, regarding the economic outlook, Premier Wen Jiabao announced moderate goals for economic growth, inflation and money supply. GDP growth for 2012 will be around 7.5%, faltering below the 8% target over the past 8 years. Inflation will stay at around 4% while M2 growth at 14%. The set of targets signals that the Chinese government accepts slower growth in the medium-term. Meanwhile, the PBOC governor Zhou Xiaochuan indicated that China is considering 'appropriately' widening the trading band for the RMB. |
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Orders and Options Watch | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
US Session: Orders and Options WatchEUR: Despite intra-day brief bounce to 1.3164, the single currency met renewed selling interest there and has retreated again ahead of U.S. opening, stops below option barrier at 1.3100 and 1.3080 are still in focus but decent demand to protect this trigger remains at 1.3100-10 and more buying interests from Middle East and Russian names are likely to emerge further out at 1.3060-70 (next barrier at 1.3050). On the upside, offers from Asian CBs remain at 1.3160-70, 1.3185 and also 1.3200 with stops building up above latter level and fresh selling interests are tipped further out at 1.3240-50, followed by bigger stops at 1.3285-90. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Forex Trade Ideas | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF – Buy at 0.9080As the greenback has eased after faltering below yesterday’s high of 0.9196, suggesting consolidation below this level would take place and retracement to the Ichimoku cloud bottom (now at 0.9130), then support at 0.9106 (Monday’s low) would be seen, however, renewed buying interest should emerge around 0.9075-80, bring another rally later. A break of said resistance would extend the rise from 0.8931 low for further gain to 0.9205/08 Trade Idea: AUD/USD – Sell at 1.0690As aussie has recovered after falling to 1.0508 today, suggesting minor consolidation would be seen, however, recent selloff signals top has been formed at 1.0857 last week and bearishness remains for a stronger retracement of recent upmove towards previous support at 1.0425-30 but reckon downside would be limited to 1.0400 and previous resistance at 1.0382-87 would hold from here, bring rebound later. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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