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Mid-Day Report: Dollar Supported by Positive ADP and ISM ServicesDollar is being supported by positive data in early US session. The ADP employment report showed 162k job growth in private sector jobs in September versus expectation of 140k. Though, prior month's figure was revised down from 201k to 189k. The data is seen as a sign of modest improvement in the US job markets. ISM manufacturing index improved to 55.1 in September versus consensus of a drop to 53.2. That's the best number since March. Business activity and new orders recorded impressive improvements, from 55.6 to 59.9 and from 53.7 to 57.7 respectively. But the employment component was relatively disappointing and dropped from 53.8 to 51.1. After all, the data were good enough to lift USD/JPY but isn't good enough to take EUR/USD out of recent range. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
USD/JPY Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 78.01; (P) 78.11; (R1) 78.25; More... USD/JPY jumps to as high as 78.47 so far in early US session. The break of 78..36 minor resistance affirmed our bullish view that pull back from 79.22 is likely finished at 77.43 already. Intraday bias remains on the upside for a test on 79.22 resistance. After all, we're favoring the bullish case that fall from 84.17 is finished at 77.13 already. Break of 79.22 will target 80.61 resistance (50% retracement of 84.17 to 77.13 at 80.65). On the downside, below 78.11 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring more consolidative trading. |
| Special Reports |
RBA Lowers Policy Rate To 3.25% After Pausing For Three MonthsTo our surprise, the RBA, after 3 months' of pause, lowered the cash rate by -25 bps to 3.25% as the drop in commodity prices, slowdown in Chinese economy and strength in the Australian dollar weighed on the country's economy. The move was welcomed by Treasurer Wayne Swan who said that 'Australians deserve cost of living relief and today that's what they got'. The AUD weakened against the USD after the announcement. |
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| Forex Trade Ideas | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD – Buy at 1.2835Despite yesterday’s rise to 1.2968, the subsequent sharp retreat after faltering below previous resistance at 1.2971 suggest consolidation would be seen and near term downside risk is seen for weakness to 1.2850, however, if our view that a temporary low formed at 1.2804 is correct, downside should be limited to 1.2830 and bring another rebound later. Above indicated resistance at 1.2968-71 is needed to signal the decline from 1.3172 top has possibly ended and bring retracement towards 1.3000 first. Trade Idea: AUD/USD – Sell at 1.0290As aussie’s decline has gathered momentum after breaking previous support at 1.0326, suggesting the fall from 1.0625 top is still in progress and weakness to another previous support at 1.0167 would be seen, however, break there is needed to retain bearishness and signal the rise from 0.9581 has ended and bring correction of this move towards 1.0100-05 but reckon downside would be limited to 1.0050-55 and psychological support at 1.0000 should limit downside. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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