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Mid-Day Report: Euro Drops Broadly after Weak Economic Data, FOMC WatchedEuro's broad based decline extends further today after release of a string of weak economic data. Eurozone PMI manufacturing unexpectedly dropped again to 45.3 in October while services PMI just showed mild improvement 46.2. Both were below expectations of 46.5 and 46.4 respectively. The composite PMI dropped to a 40-month low of 44.8. German PMI manufacturing dropped to 45.7 while PMI services dropped to 49.3. French PMI manufacturing improved just slightly to 43.5 and PMI services rose to 46.2. These readings are mostly staying deep in contraction region. Meanwhile, German Ifo business climate dropped to 100 in October, lowest since February 2010 while current assessment index dropped to 107.3. Expectations gauge was unchanged at 93.2. Today's data clearly indicate that recession is set to continue in Eurozone and Germany won't be immune. Currently, EUR/USD is undergoing a falling leg inside recent consolidation pattern from 1.3171 and could head lower to 1.2825 and below. The common currency could remain soft until Spain's bailout situation is finally cleared. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
EUR/USD Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.2932; (P) 1.3004 (R1) 1.3056; More..... EUR/USD drops further as expected and reaches as low as 1.2920 so far. Outlook remains unchanged. Fall from 1.3138 is the third leg of the consolidation pattern from 1.3173 and could extend lower to 1.2825 and below. But, downside should be contained by 50% retracement of 1.2255 to 1.3171 at 1.2713 to conclude the consolidation and bring rebound. On the upside, sustained break of 1.3171 will confirm that rise from 1.2042 has finally resumed and should target 1.3486 key resistance, which is close to 50% retracement of 1.4939 to 1.2042 at 1.3491. |
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US Session: Orders and Options WatchEUR: Although the single currency dropped again in European session to an intra-day low of 1.2921, euro has rebounded again on market talk that Greece will receive 2-year extension to reach budget targets, comments from Draghi also helped lifting the pair, offers at 1.2960-65 were filled, however, selling interests in good size from sovereign names and funds are still noted at 1.3000-10 and also at 1.3035-40 with stops building up above 1.3050 and 1.3080 but sizeable offers remain at 1.3090-00 and also at 1.3140-50 (related to 1.3150 option barrier). On the downside, there are still talk of Asian CBs bidding around 1.2950-55 with stops building up at 1.2940-50, more stops are placed below 1.2920-25 and 1.2890 (with demand from Middle East names and real money accounts above these levels, some related to option barrier at 1.2900) but fresh demand should emerge further out around 1.2840-50. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF – Sell at 0.9375Although dollar has retreated after intra-day brief rise to 0.9361, break of indicated previous resistance at 0.9295 is needed to signal top is formed and bring weakness towards support at 0.9250, otherwise, near term upside risk remains for the rise from 0.9216 (last week’s low) to extend gain towards 0.9372-77 (previous resistance and 1.618 times projection of 0.9216-0.9295 measuring from 0.9250) but near term overbought condition should prevent sharp move beyond there and reckon 0.9400 would hold, bring retreat later. Trade Idea: EUR/JPY – Sell at 103.75Current selloff after meeting renewed selling interests at 103.82 suggests near term downside risk remains for the fall from 104.59 (this week’s high) to bring retracement of recent upmove to 102.85-90 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 100.16-104.59), then towards 102.00-10, however, reckon previous resistance at 101.92 would limit downside and bring rebound later. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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