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Mid-Day Report: Canadian Dollar Rebounds as BoC Maintained Tightening BiasCanadian dollar rebounds strongly in early US session after BoC kept rates unchanged at 1.00%. Surprisingly, the central bank also kept the language that "some modest withdrawal of monetary policy stimulus will likely be required". That is, it's still maintaining a tightening bias in spite of recent comments from BoC Governor and Finance Minister. BoC expects "global headwinds" to restrict activities but "domestic factors" supports moderate expansion. BoC projects that the economy will grow by 2.2% in 2012, 2.3% in 2013 and 2.4% in 2014. The central bank expects core inflation to climb "gradually" over coming quarters and reach 2% by mid-2013. Headline CPI is expected to return to 2% by end of 2013. Also released from Canada, retail sales rose 0.3%, inline with expectations, and ex-auto sales rose 0.4% versus consensus of 0.2%. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
USD/CAD Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 0.9903; (P) 0.9934; (R1) 0.9951; More. Despite jumping again to 0.9974, USD/CAD failed to sustain above mentioned 0.9948 resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.0455 to 0.9633 at 0.9943). With 4 hours MACD crossed staying signal line, intraday bias remains neutral. Also, near term outlook is neutral with focus on 0.9948/74 and 0.9762 support. On the upside, sustained break of 0.9948/74 will have larger bullish implication and will target 61.8% retracement at 1.0141 and above. However, break of 0.9762 will argue that rebound from 0.9633 is finished and fall from 1.0445 is resuming for another low below 0.9633. |
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| Orders and Options Watch | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
US Session: Orders and Options WatchEUR: The single currency fell quite sharply today since European session after the release of soft data from France and stops below 1.2990-00 were triggered, however, indicated bids are still noted at 1.2940-50 with more stops placed below 1.2920-25 and 1.2890 but fresh demand should emerge further out around 1.2840-50. On the upside, offers are lowered to 1.3000-10 and also at 1.3035-40 with stops building up above 1.3050 and 1.3080 but selling interests in good size remain at 1.3090-00 and also at 1.3140-50 (related to 1.3150 option barrier) with stops building up above there. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Forex Trade Ideas | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF – Sell at 0.9370 or buy at 0.9295As intra-day rise has gathered momentum, suggesting near term upside risk remains for the rebound from last week’s low of 0.9216 to bring a stronger retracement of recent decline to 0.9350 and 0.9372, however, near term overbought condition should limit upside and reckon 0.9400 would hold, bring retreat later. On the downside, expect previous resistance at 0.9295 (same level as current Kijun-Sen) to contain pullback, bring such rise. Only below the Ichimoku cloud top (now at 0.9271) would abort and signal top is possibly formed Trade Idea: EUR/GBP – Buy at 0.8050Despite yesterday’s rise to 0.8165, as the single currency has retreated after faltering below this resistance, suggesting a minor top is formed and consolidation with mild downside bias is seen for pullback to 0.8090-00, however, downside should be limited to 0.8040 support and bring another rise later. A break of said resistance would extend the rise from 0.7756 (wave v bottom) for a stronger correction of early decline to 0.8180 and possibly towards 0.8200 but loss of upward momentum should prevent sharp move beyond 0.8220-25 Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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