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Daily Report: Euro Range Against Dollar, Firm Elsewhere ahead of ECB MeetingWhile the common currency is still bounded in range against dollar, it's generally firm against other major currencies. Main focus today will be on ECB meeting. The ECB would very likely leave its policy rate unchanged at the October meeting. In fact, after the announcement of the OMT in September and release of the meeting statement, we expect policymakers would leave interest rates unchanged for the rest of the year unless economic data suggests that more downside risks would be seen on economic growth and inflation. At the press conference, we expect President Draghi would need to give further clarification on operations of the OMT as well as Spain's sovereign debt problems. More in ECB On Wait And See Mode In October. BoE will also announce monetary policy decision today. Interest rates will remain at 0.5%, and the asset purchase program at GBP 375b. The quantitative easing program is expected to be expanded once again after the latest GBP 50b program completes in November. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
EUR/AUD Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.2475; (P) 1.2539; (R1) 1.2649; More..... Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains on the upside for the moment and current rally from 1.1602 is still in progress. Next target will be 1.3028 key resistance. On the downside, below 1.2577 will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But retreat should be contained above 1.2328 and bring rally resumption. |
| Special Reports |
ECB On Wait And See Mode In OctoberThe ECB would very likely leave its policy rate unchanged at the October meeting. In fact, after the announcement of the OMT in September and release of the meeting statement, we expect policymakers would leave interest rates unchanged for the rest of the year unless economic data suggests that more downside risks would be seen on economic growth and inflation. At the press conference, we expect President Draghi would need to give further clarification on operations of the OMT as well as Spain's sovereign debt problems. |
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Trade Idea: USD/JPY – Buy at 77.90As the greenback has maintained a firm undertone after breaking indicated previous resistance at 78.38, adding credence to our view that decline from 79.23 has ended at 77.44 and bullishness remains for the rise from there to bring retracement to 78.70, then towards 78.95-00 but reckon said resistance at 79.23 would limit upside and bring retreat later due to near term overbought condition. Trade Idea: USD/CHF – Sell at 0.9415Dollar’s near term sideways trading is expected to continue and as long as 0.9330 support holds, near term upside risk remains for another rebound, however, if our view that a temporary top has possibly been formed at 0.9437 on Monday is correct, upside should be limited to 0.9417-18 and said resistance at 0.9437 would hold, bring another decline later. Below said support at 0.9330 would confirm top formation, bring retracement of recent rise to 0.9300 and possibly towards 0.9286 support which is likely to hold on first testing. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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