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Daily Report: Aussie's Selloff Continues after Trade DataAussie remains the biggest loser this week as the post RBA cut selloff extends today. Further selling was seen today after Australia posted some bad trade data. Trade deficit widened much more than expected to AUD -2027m in August, comparing to expectation of AUD -685m. Also, prior month's deficit was also revised from AUD -556m to AUD -1530m. Australian had been in trade deficit for the whole year of 2012 so far. Today's data also showed exports dropped a massive -12.3% while imports rose 5.4%. Falling commodity price and weak demand from China were the key drivers. Even after yesterday's surprised rate cut, RBA is still expected to lower rates further. Markets are pricing in an 80% chance that the OCR will be at 2.75% or lower by February. Aussie will remain soft broadly. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
AUD/USD Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.0218; (P) 1.0297; (R1) 1.0342; More... AUD/USD's fall from 1.0624 accelerates to as low as 1.0211 so far today. Intraday bias remains on the downside for 1.0165 support. Break will clear the near term outlook and should confirm that whole rebound from 0.9588 is finished. That is deeper decline should then be seen back to parity and below. On the upside, above 1.0328 minor resistance will, on the other hand, indicates that recent sideway trading is not finished yet and will keep near term outlook neutral. |
| Special Reports |
RBA Lowers Policy Rate To 3.25% After Pausing For Three MonthsTo our surprise, the RBA, after 3 months' of pause, lowered the cash rate by -25 bps to 3.25% as the drop in commodity prices, slowdown in Chinese economy and strength in the Australian dollar weighed on the country's economy. The move was welcomed by Treasurer Wayne Swan who said that 'Australians deserve cost of living relief and today that's what they got'. The AUD weakened against the USD after the announcement. |
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Trade Idea: USD/CHF – Sell at 0.9415Despite yesterday’s fall to 0.9334, as the greenback has staged a strong rebound after holding above indicated previous support at 0.9330, retaining our view that further consolidation would take place, however, still reckon resistance at 0.9437 would limit upside and bring another decline later. A breach of said support would confirm our view that top has been formed at 0.9437 and bring retracement of recent rise to 0.9300 and possibly towards 0.9286 support which is likely to hold on first testing.Trade Idea: EUR/USD – Buy at 1.2835Despite yesterday’s rise to 1.2968, the subsequent sharp retreat after faltering below previous resistance at 1.2971 suggest consolidation would be seen and near term downside risk is seen for weakness to 1.2850, however, if our view that a temporary low formed at 1.2804 is correct, downside should be limited to 1.2830 and bring another rebound later. Above the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.2923) would bring another test of 1.2968-71 but break there is needed to signal the decline from 1.3172 top has possibly ended Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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