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Daily Report: FX in Range, IMF Warned of Asian SlowdownWhile most Asia equities strengthened today on improved risk sentiments, the currency markets are generally trapped in familiar range. The IMF said that Asian growth is projected to "pick up very gradually" and the region will remain the leader in growth. It expects Asia to expand "over two percentage points faster than the world average next year". However, it also warned that "sustained high rates of growth over the medium term cannot be taken for granted". And it expressed concern that "magnitude of the recent slowdown in some large Asian economies has raised concerns that it might not be just cyclical". And, considering that "inflation expectations have remained well anchored", IMF urged that "should activity fail to pick up as projected, further easing may be warranted". Growth is Asia is estimated to be at 5.4% this year, around 0.6% lower than April's forecast. And, there is one-in-seven odds that Asian growth will fall below 4% in 2013. Hard-landing remains a lower probability for China. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
AUD/USD Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.0217; (P) 1.0255; (R1) 1.0301; More... No change in AUD/USD's outlook. Consolidation from 1.0148 is still in progress and could climb higher. But upside is expected to be limited by 1.0327 support turned resistance and bring another fall. As noted before, whole rebound from 0.9588 should have finished at 1.0624 already. Fall from there is expected to extend lower and below 1.0148 will target 61.8% retracement of 0.9588 to 1.0624 at 0.9884 and below. |
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| Orders and Options Watch | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
European Session: Orders and Options WatchEUR: The single currency surged again after yesterday's strong rebound on stop-hunting and lowered bond yields in European morning, stops at 1.2955 and 1.2970 were triggered, however, fresh selling interests are still noted at 1.2990-00 with more stops placed above there, followed by more offers at 1.3040-50. On the downside bids raised to 1.2925-30 and also at 1.2900-10 with sell stop orders placed below 1.2880-90, more stops are placed below 1.2860 and 1.2840 but sizeable bids from Asian and Middle East names are expected at 1.2825-35, more stops building up below 1.2820 and 1.2800. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Trade Idea: EUR/USD – Turn long at 1.2925As the single currency has risen again after staging a strong rebound yesterday from 1.2827, suggesting a temporary low has been formed there and consolidation with mild upside bias is seen for gain to 1.2975-80 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.3072-1.2827), then test of resistance at 1.2991, however, near term overbought condition should limit upside to 1.3040-50 and price should falter well below said resistance at 1.3072. Trade Idea: USD/JPY – Buy at 78.20Yesterday’s strong rebound from 77.95 to 78.59 signals low has been formed and the decline from 78.88 (last week’s high) has possibly ended there, hence consolidation with upside bias remains for gain towards this resistance, break there would extend recent upmove from 77.44 to 79.00, then previous resistance at 79.23 but a breach of this level is needed to retain bullishness. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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