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Daily Report: Yen Soldoff after Trade DataThe Japanese yen drops sharply today after release of trade balance data. Japan's trade deficit widened sharply to JPY 0.98T in September from JPY 0.46T a month ago. The result was the worst on record and was mainly driven by the increase in imports and the huge drop in exports. Geographically, exports to mainland China declined -14.1% due to tensions between China and Japan on the Diaoyu Islands dispute. The economy probably contracted in the third quarter, hurt by deterioration in the exports sector. In a speech at a quarterly meeting, BOJ governor Masaaki Shirakawa warned of the global economic uncertainty ahead and indicated that the central bank would continue with its ultra accommodative monetary policy. According to the governor, "overseas economies have moved somewhat deeper into a deceleration phase. Investors' risk aversion, driven by Europe's debt problems, has eased somewhat but we must carefully watch market developments". Economists currently anticipated that the BOJ would adopt further easing measures by the end of this month. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
EUR/JPY Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 103.21; (P) 103.67; (R1) 104.05; More EUR/JPY rebounded strongly today and focus is back on 104.13 resistance. Break will resume recent rally and target 61.8% retracement of 111.43 to 94.11 at 104.81 and then 111.43 key resistance. Meanwhile in case of another fall as consolidation extends, we'd expect downside to be contained by 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 102.62) and bring another rise. In any case, we'll stay near term bullish as long as 100.14 support holds and expect further rally ahead. |
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| Orders and Options Watch | |||||||||||||||||||||
European Session: Orders and Options WatchEUR: The single currency rebounded after intra-day marginal fall to 1.3013, however, offers from various names are still noted at 1.3070-75 and also around 1.3090-00, more sizeable sell orders are tipped at 1.3140-50 (related to 1.3150 option barrier) with stops building up above there. On the downside, demand from Asian and Middle East names are lined up at 1.3000-10 with stops building up below there and 1.2990 (large) but fresh demand should emerge around 1.2940-50 with more stops placed below 1.2920-25 and 1.2890. | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Forex Trade Ideas | |||||||||||||||||||||
Trade Idea: GBP/USD – Target met and sell again at 1.6080Despite last week’s rise to 1.6178, the subsequent anticipated selloff adds credence to our bearish view (we recommended to sell at 1.6150 and this short position met target at 1.6020 late last week with 130 points profit), signalling the rebound from 1.5975 has ended at 1.6178 and although price has rebounded after intra-day marginal fall to 1.5990, upside should be limited to resistance at 1.6066 (Friday’s high) and 1.6080-85 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.6178-1.5990) should limit upside, bring another decline. Trade Idea: EUR/USD – Sell at 1.3100Although the single currency has rebounded after intra-day marginal fall to 1.3013 (Friday’s low was 1.3014), as temporary top has been formed at 1.3140 last week, upside should be limited to the Ichimoku cloud top (now at 1.3092) and reckon 1.3129 would hold, bring another decline, break of said support would bring a stronger retracement of recent upmove to 1.3000, then towards 1.2979 (previous minor resistance) but reckon 1.2940-45 would hold from here, bring rebound later. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Fundamental Highlights
Technical Highlights | |||||||||||||||||||||
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