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Daily Report: Aussie Weakens on Unexpected RBA CutAussie dives across the board after RBA unexpectedly cut rates by 25bps to 3.25% today on international developments and weaker growth outlook for 2013. Markets expected the central bank to stand pat. Interest rates are now back to the lowest level since 2009. In the accompanying statement, RBA governor Stevens noted that global economy softened with risks on the downside. As a result, "key commodity prices" remain "significantly lower than earlier in the year" and terms of trade dropped by over 10% since last year's peak. Indicators suggest Australian growth would be close to trend with "large increases in capital spending" in resources sector. But the peak is "likely to occur next year", and may be "at a lower level" than expected. Labor market has generally softened in recent months. Inflation is expected to be consistent with target over the next one-to-two years. Technically, AUD/USD dipped through 1.0328 minor support today and current fall from 1.0624 is extending to 1.0165 support level. Though, we'll continue to stay neutral in the pair as a breakout from range of 1.0165/0624 is needed to clear the mixed near term outlook. EUR/AUD, though, looks like resuming recent rally after today's jump. September's high of 1.2552 would likely be taken out soon. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
GBP/USD Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.6084; (P) 1.6178; (R1) 1.6244; More... No change in GBP/USD's outlook. Consolidation from 1.6309 might continue lower. But near term outlook stays bullish as long as 1.5912 support holds and we'd expect further rise ahead. Sustained break of 1.6300 will have larger bullish implication and would pave the way to 1.6618/6746 resistance zone next. |
| Special Reports |
RBA Lowers Policy Rate To 3.25% After Pausing For Three MonthsTo our surprise, the RBA, after 3 months' of pause, lowered the cash rate by -25 bps to 3.25% as the drop in commodity prices, slowdown in Chinese economy and strength in the Australian dollar weighed on the country's economy. The move was welcomed by Treasurer Wayne Swan who said that 'Australians deserve cost of living relief and today that's what they got'. The AUD weakened against the USD after the announcement. |
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Trade Idea: GBP/USD – Buy on break of 1.6175Although the British pound has retreated after yesterday’s rebound from 1.6109-1.6175, break of said support is needed to signal the decline from 1.6310 top has resumed for a stronger correction of recent upmove to 1.6100 and then 1.6071 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.5923-1.6310) but reckon 1.6050 would limit downside. Trade Idea: EUR/USD – Buy at 1.2835Despite yesterday’s initial fall to 1.2804, the subsequent strong rebound suggests a temporary low is possibly formed there and consolidation with mild upside bias is seen for gain to 1.2945 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.3172-1.2804), then test of previous resistance at 1.2960, however, only break of this Friday’s high would signal the decline from 1.3172 top has possibly ended and bring retracement towards 1.3000. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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