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Daily Report: Dollar Mildly Softer after FOMC Offered Nothing New, Yen Even WeakerDollar turned a bit softer overnight after FOMC left rates unchanged at 0-0.25% as widely expected and offered no surprise to the markets. Fed maintained it's pledge to keep rates at this ultra low level until mid-2015 and held the USD 40b per month open-ended QE3 program unchanged too. In the accompanying statement, Fed showed concern that "without further policy accommodation, economic growth might not be strong enough to generate sustained improvement in labor market conditions." And Fed could even expand its efforts “if the outlook for the labor market does not improve substantially.” While the greenback dipped mildly against most major currencies, it strengthens against the even weaker yen as Asian equities opened mildly higher, diverging from weakness in US stocks. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
USD/JPY Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 79.69; (P) 79.80; (R1) 79.92; More... USD/JPY recovers today but is kept in range below 80.00 temporary top. Intraday bias remains neutral. More consolidations would still be seen with risk of another fall. But downside of retreat should be contained above 78.86 support and bring another rally. Above 80 will target 80.61 resistance (50% retracement of 84.17 to 77.13 at 80.65) next. |
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| Orders and Options Watch | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
European Session: Orders and Options WatchEUR: Although the single currency jumped in European opening and hit an intra-day high of 1.3015, euro ran into heavy offers from Asian CBs there and has retreated back below 1.3000 level. At the moment, bids are still noted at 1.2950-60 with sell stop orders building up below there, followed by mixture of bids and stops at 1.2920-30 with more sizeable stops placed below 1.2900 barrier and 1.2890. On the upside, offers from sovereign names are still seen at 1.3010-20 with buy stop orders building up above there, followed by decent offers located further out in the region of 1.3050-70 area and sizeable stops are placed around 1.3090-00. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Forex Trade Ideas | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Trade Idea: USD/CHF – Sell at 0.9380Although dollar has retreated after rising to 0.9361 yesterday, break of indicated previous resistance at 0.9295 is needed to signal top is formed and bring weakness towards support at 0.9250, otherwise, near term upside risk remains for the rise from 0.9216 (last week’s low) to extend gain towards 0.9372-77 (previous resistance and 1.618 times projection of 0.9216-0.9295 measuring from 0.9250) but loss of momentum should prevent sharp move beyond there and reckon 0.9400 would hold, bring retreat later. Trade Idea: USD/JPY – Buy at 79.50 or sell at 80.60As dollar has risen again after finding support at 79.70 yesterday, suggesting recent rise is still in progress and gain to previous resistance at 80.62-65 would be seen, however, loss of upward momentum should prevent sharp move beyond there and reckon 80.82-85 (1.618 times projection of 77.14-79.23 measuring from 77.44) would hold from here, bring retreat later. Having said that, previous resistance at 79.47 should limit downside and this week’s low at 79.23 should remain intact, bring another rise later. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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