Friday, October 26, 2012

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 10-26-12 (trusted: contact@actionforex.com)

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Sentiments Getting Support from US Q3 GDP

Disappointing earnings reports weighed down on market sentiments for most of the day and provided some boost to dollar and yen. But sentiments seem to be supported by GDP report from US as European indices turned positive while US futures pared some earlier losses. The US economy expanded at a pace of 2% annualized rate in Q3, comparing to expectation of 1.8% and Q2's 1.3%. Meanwhile the GDP price index rose 2.8% versus consensus of 2.0%.

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Featured Technical Report

USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 79.92; (P) 80.13; (R1) 80.50; More...

It looks like USD/JPY has formed a short term top at 80.37 with mild bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD. Intraday bias is now turned neutral for more consolidations. But downside would likely be contained by 38.2% retracement of 77.93 to 80.37 at 79.43 and bring another rally. Above 80.37 will target 80.61 resistance (50% retracement of 84.17 to 77.13 at 80.65). Sustained break there will open the way for 84.17 resistance next.

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Economic Indicators Update

GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
21:45 NZD Trade Balance (NZD) Sep -791M -850M -789M -809M
23:30 JPY National CPI Core Y/Y Sep -0.10% -0.20% -0.30%
23:30 JPY Tokyo CPI Core Y/Y Oct -0.40% -0.50% -0.40%
06:00 EUR German GfK Consumer Sentiment Nov 6.30% 5.9 5.9
06:00 EUR German Import Price Index M/M Sep -0.70% 0.30% 1.30%
07:00 CHF KOF Leading Indicator Oct 1.67 1.67
12:30 USD GDP (Annualized) Q3 A 2.00% 1.80% 1.30%
12:30 USD GDP Price Index Q3 A 2.80% 2.00% 1.60%
13:55 USD U. of Michigan Confidence Oct F 82.6 83 83.1
 
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency fell to the fresh low of the week of 1.2883-84 but recovered in New York morning on short-covering ahead of weekend. At the moment, offers from various parties remain at 1.2970-80 and also at 1.3000-20 area (from sovereign names) with buy stop orders tipped above 1.3025-30, followed by decent offers from same parties located further out in the region of 1.3050-70 and sizeable stops are placed around 1.3090-00. On the downside, although stops below 1.2915 and 1.2890 were tripped, indicated demand from Middle East names are reported at 1.2880 and also around 1.2850-60 with bigger stops building up below 1.2820 and 1.2800.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: USD/JPY – Sell at 80.20

Despite intra-day marginal rise to 80.38, as the greenback has retreated sharply from there, suggesting a temporary top is possibly formed and consolidation with downside bias is seen but break of 79.70 support is needed to add credence to this view, bring weakness to previous resistance at 79.47, then 79.20, however, reckon support at 79.08 would hold from here, bring another rally later.

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Trade Idea: AUD/USD – Sell at 1.0360

Despite yesterday’s rebound to 1.0397, as aussie met renewed selling interests below indicated resistance at 1.0412, suggesting further consolidation within near term range would be seen and weakness to 1.0290-00 is likely, break there would bring another fall to support at 1.0236, once this support is penetrated, this would suggest the rebound from 1.0149 has ended and bring weakness to 1.0200, then towards this support which is likely to hold on first testing.

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

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