Wednesday, October 17, 2012

Action Insight Daily Report 10-18-12 (trusted: contact@actionforex.com)

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Daily Report: Commodity Currencies Jump on China GDP, EU Summit Watched

Commodity currencies jump in Asian session as Chinese GDP data lifted risk sentiments and sent Asian equities higher. Nikkei is up over 145 pts while HK HSI is up over 120 pts at the time of writing. AUD/USD extended this week's rebound and is pressing 1.04 level. USD/CAD also reversed earlier loss this week and is back below 0.98. China's Q3 GDP grew 7.4% yoy, slowest rate since 2009 and was the seventh successive quarter of slower growth. But that matched market expectations. Meanwhile, industrial production rose 9.2% yoy in September, well above expectation of 7.7% yoy. Retail sales rose 14.2% yoy versus expectation of 14.0% yoy. Meanwhile, European majors pared gain ahead of EU summit in Brussels.

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Featured Technical Report

EUR/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 103.07; (P) 103.40; (R1) 103.90; More

EUR/JPY rose to as high as 103.83 so far today and intraday bias remains on the upside. As noted before, current development argues that rebound from 94.11 is resuming. Break of 103.86 will confirm this bullish case and target 61.8% retracement of 111.43 to 94.11 at 104.81 and then 111.43 key resistance. On the downside, though, below 102.90 minor support will delay the bullish case and turn bias neutral again for more sideway trading.

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Special Reports

BOE Minutes Unveiled Divided Opinions On Asset Purchases

The October BOE minutes indicated that the 9 members voted unanimously to leave the Bank rate unchanged at 0.5% and the asset purchase program at 375B pound at the meeting. The minutes also unveiled that policymakers were divided regarding whether asset purchases should be extended after its completion by the MPC meeting in November. Members were also split on the effectiveness of the program on the country's economy. Therefore, the month's minutes omitted the language that policymakers 'felt that additional stimulus was more likely than not to be needed'.

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Economic Indicators Update

GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
0:30 AUD NAB Business Confidence Q3 -2 -2 -3
2:00 CNY Industrial Production Y/Y Sep 9.20% 7.70% 8.90%
2:00 CNY Real GDP Q/Y Q3 7.40% 7.40% 7.60%
2:00 CNY Retail Sales Y/Y Sep 14.20% 14.00% 13.20%
6:00 CHF Trade Balance (CHF) Sep 2.42B 1.73B
8:30 GBP Retail Sales M/M Sep 0.50% -0.30%
8:30 GBP Retail Sales Y/Y Sep 2.60% 3.10%
8:30 GBP Retail Sales w/Auto Fuel M/M Sep 0.60% -0.20%
8:30 GBP Retail Sales w/Auto Fuel Y/Y Sep 2.20% 2.70%
12:30 CAD Wholesale Sales M/M Aug 0.20% -0.60%
12:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims (OCT 13) 363K 339K
14:00 USD Philly Fed Survey Oct 0.2 -1.9
14:00 USD Leading Indicators Sep 0.10% -0.10%
14:30 USD Natural Gas Storage 46B 72B
 
Forex Trade Ideas

Due to holidays, no update next week and next Candlestick and Ichimoku Trade Idea update will be made on Monday 22 Oct 2012.

Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

 

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