Thursday, October 18, 2012

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 10-18-12 (trusted: contact@actionforex.com)

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Euro Stays in Range after Spanish Auction, Awaits EU Summit

Euro remains in tight range against dollar but showed some strength against the broadly weak yen. Markets are keeping their eyes on the EU summit which is expected to focus on banking union. A key focus is France and Germany divergence over the time table of implementation. German Chancellor Merkel said in Berlin today that EU should have the "real rights to intervene in national budgets" that breached the growth and stability pact but Germany seems to be "isolated" on the issue. Germany also advocate to take a more cautious approach in formation of the union. Meanwhile, French President Hollande said that there was "not time to lose" to set up the banking union. He also emphasized that the topic of the summit is "not the fiscal union but the banking union" and " will be taken is to set up a banking union by the end of the year and especially the banking supervision." These issues will likely remain unresolved after the summit and no decision on Greece or Spain are expected.

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Featured Technical Report

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3068; (P) 1.3103 (R1) 1.3155; More.....

While EUR/USD lose some upside momentum, intraday bias remains mildly on the upside with 1.3015 minor support intact. Recent development suggests that rise from 1.2042 is resuming. Break of 1.3171 will confirm this bullish case and target 1.3486 key resistance next, which is close to 50% retracement of 1.4939 to 1.2042 at 1.3491. On the downside, though, below 1.3015 minor support will delay the bullish case and turn bias neutral for more consolidations first.

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Special Reports

BOE Minutes Unveiled Divided Opinions On Asset Purchases

The October BOE minutes indicated that the 9 members voted unanimously to leave the Bank rate unchanged at 0.5% and the asset purchase program at 375B pound at the meeting. The minutes also unveiled that policymakers were divided regarding whether asset purchases should be extended after its completion by the MPC meeting in November. Members were also split on the effectiveness of the program on the country's economy. Therefore, the month's minutes omitted the language that policymakers 'felt that additional stimulus was more likely than not to be needed'.

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Economic Indicators Update

GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
00:30 AUD NAB Business Confidence Q3 -2 -2 -3
02:00 CNY Industrial Production Y/Y Sep 9.20% 7.70% 8.90%
02:00 CNY Real GDP Q/Y Q3 7.40% 7.40% 7.60%
02:00 CNY Retail Sales Y/Y Sep 14.20% 14.00% 13.20%
06:00 CHF Trade Balance (CHF) Sep 2.01B 2.42B 1.73B 1.61B
08:30 GBP Retail Sales M/M Sep 0.60% 0.50% -0.30% -0.10%
08:30 GBP Retail Sales Y/Y Sep 2.90% 2.60% 3.10% 2.90%
08:30 GBP Retail Sales w/Auto Fuel M/M Sep 0.60% 0.60% -0.20% -0.10%
08:30 GBP Retail Sales w/Auto Fuel Y/Y Sep 2.50% 2.20% 2.70% 2.50%
12:30 CAD Wholesale Sales M/M Aug 0.50% 0.20% -0.60%
12:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims (OCT 13) 388K 363K 339K 342K
14:00 USD Philly Fed Survey Oct 0.2 -1.9
14:00 USD Leading Indicators Sep 0.10% -0.10%
14:30 USD Natural Gas Storage 46B 72B
 
Forex Trade Ideas

Due to holidays, no update next week and next Candlestick and Ichimoku Trade Idea update will be made on Monday 22 Oct 2012.

Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

 

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