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Mid-Day Report: Dollar and Yen Pressured as Equities Rebound, More Selling after Jobless ClaimsDollar and yen are back under pressure on risk appetite as European equities staged a strong rebound today while US futures also point to higher openings. S&P's downgrade of Spain is somewhat a blessing in disguise to investors as it could put more pressure for the country to finally seek a sovereign bailout. IMF chief Lagarde's comment on Greece also raised the possibilities that it's finally getting the nod to extend the fiscal adjustment program. In addition, job data from US was positive to sentiments. Initial jobless claims dropped more than expected to 339k in the week ended October 6, hitting a 4 year low. Continuing claims dropped by 15k to 3.27m in the week ended September 29. EUR/USD was supported above 1.2803 while EUR/JPY also also recovered ahead of 99.63 support. Note also that EUR/GBP drew some support from 4 hours 55 EMA while EUR/AUD also recovered from a near term rising channel. We could probably see the common currency back in favor against rivals before the week closes. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
EUR/USD Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.2836; (P) 1.2874 (R1) 1.2914; More..... EUR/USD recovers strongly ahead of 1.2803 support and with 4 hours MACD crossed above signal line, intraday bias is turned neutral first. Overall outlook remains unchanged. Price actions from 1.3171 are treated as a consolidation only. Above 1.3070 will suggest that recent rise from 1.2042 is resuming. Break of 1.3171 will target 1.3486 key resistance next, which is close to 50% retracement of 1.4939 to 1.2042 at 1.3491. Before a break of 1.3070, another fall could still be seen. But even in that case, downside should be contained by 50% retracement of 1.2255 to 1.3171 at 1.2713 to conclude the consolidation. |
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| Orders and Options Watch | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
US Session: Orders and Options WatchJPY: Dollar rallied today since European session on improved risk sentiment and indicated offers at 78.40-50 were filled and stops above 78.65 are in focus, however, selling interests from exporters remain from 78.80 up to 79.00 with more stops placed above 79.10, followed by combination of offers and stops at 79.20-35. On the downside, bids from various parties (including Japanese investors and funds) are raised to 78.20-25 and also at 78.00-05, more buying interests are tipped at 77.80-90 (from real money accounts and semi-official names) with more stops placed below 77.80 and 77.70 but demand from same parties should emerge at 77.50-60 with stops building up below 77.40. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD – Sell at 1.6115 or buy at 1.5930Current euro-led rebound adds credence to our view that a minor low is formed at 1.5975 earlier and consolidation would be seen with mild upside bias for retracement to 1.6068 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.6218-1.5975) and possibly 1.6097 (50% Fibonacci retracement) but price should falter below 1.6125-30 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement) and bring another decline later. A break of said support at 1.5975 would extend the fall from 1.6310 top for a stronger retracement of early upmove to 1.5950 Trade Idea: EUR/JPY – Buy at 99.80Although the single currency has fallen again after meeting renewed selling interests at 101.16 and the fall from 102.80 may extend marginal weakness below psychological support at 100.00, as outlook is still consolidative, previous support at 99.65 should limit downside and further choppy trading would take place. Above 101.16 (yesterday’s high) would suggest low is possibly formed, bring a stronger rebound to resistance at 101.84, break there would signal the fall from 102.80 has ended and bring a stronger round to 102.20-30 first Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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