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Mid-Day Report: Sentiments Reversed after Initial Dip, Risk Extends Rally after ISM ManufacturingMarkets seem to have positive response to Spain's bank stress test as major European indices rallied strongly. FTSE, DAX and CAC are all up over 1%. US equities also opened higher and extends rally after better than expected manufacturing data. The ISM manufacturing index rose back to 51.5 in September, back in expansion region, versus expectation of 50. Price paid component rose to 58 versus expectation of 55.5. And importantly, the employment component improved notably from 51.6 to 54.7. Other data released in US session saw US construction spending dropped -0.6% mom in August, Canadian IPPI dropped -0.1% mom in August while RMPI rose 3.4% mom. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
EUR/USD Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.2806; (P) 1.2882 (R1) 1.2927; More..... EUR/USD dipped to 1.2803 earlier today but quickly rebounded after drawing support from mentioned 1.2816 support (38.2% retracement of 1.2255 to 1.3171 at 1.2821). Some more consolidative trading could still be seen but again, we'd expect strong support from 1.2816 to contain downside. Above 1.2970 will flip bias back to the upside for 1.3171. Break there will confirm resumption of recent rise from 1.2042 and target 1.3486 key resistance, which is close to 50% retracement of 1.4939 to 1.2042 at 1.3491. Though, another break of 1.2816 will bring further pull back to 61.8% retracement of 1.2255 to 1.3171 at 1.2605. |
| Special Reports |
RBA To Stand On The Sideline In OctoberWhile markets are pricing in a 70% probability of a -25 bps cut in October, we believe the RBA would do so in November. Inflation has remained benign and the central bank would find it comfortable to ease further. Moreover, the recent sharp decline in commodity prices has unfortunately come together with strength in the Australian dollar. Yet, the situation has improved since the September meeting. Concerning the international and domestic economic conditions, little change, if not improvement, was also seen since the last meeting. The central bank would have little justification to announce a rate cut this month. |
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Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF – Sell at 0.9410Although the greenback found renewed buying interests just above previous support at 0.9330 and resumed recent rise to as high as 0.9437 this morning, the subsequent sharp retreat suggests top is possibly formed there and consolidation with downside bias is seen but break of said support at 0.9330 is needed to confirm and bring retracement of recent rise to 0.9300 and possibly 0.9286 support. Trade Idea: AUD/USD – Buy on break of 1.0474Although aussie dropped again after meeting resistance at 1.0474 last Friday and dropped below support at 1.0328, lack of follow through selling on current rebound from 1.0326 suggest consolidation would be seen and test of 1.0410-20 is likely, however, a firm breach of said resistance at 1.0474 is needed to confirm low is formed, bring a stronger rebound to 1.0519 resistance, once this level is penetrate6d, this would signal the fall from 1.0625 has ended Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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