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Daily Report: Focus Turns to Employment Data as Central Bank MeetingsMarkets focus will now turn to employment data after passing all central banks meeting this week. Analysts expect US NFP to show 111k job growth in September, up from August's 96k. Unemployment rate is expected to rise from 8.1% to 8.2%. Looking at the leading indicators, ADP employment report was ok at 162k even though it dropped from 189k in August. ISM manufacturing employment made an impressive improvement from 51.6 to 54.7. But the ISM services employment deteriorated from 53.8 to 51.1. The 4 week moving average of initial jobless claims was slightly up from 371k to 375k. The overall picture suggests that NFP wouldn't give much surprise. And, as the Fed has now adopted an open ended QE which ties to the unemployment condition, today's data should do much to change markets expectation of Fed's QE program. Canada will also release job data and is expected to show 15k growth in September with unemployment rate unchanged at 7.3%. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
USD/CHF Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 0.9270; (P) 0.9329; (R1) 0.9364; More... Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains on the downside for the moment. As noted before, recovery from 0.9238 should have finished at 0.9438 already. Break of 0.9238 will confirm resumption of whole fall from 0.9971 and should target 0.8930 key support next. On the upside, above 0.9398 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and extend the consolidation. But again, upside should be limited by 0.9502 support turned resistance, (38.2% retracement of 0.9971 to 0.9238 at 0.9518) and bring fall resumption eventually. |
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| Orders and Options Watch | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
European Session: Orders and Options WatchEUR: Euro surged yesterday in part due to hawkish remarks from ECB's statement and mixture of offers and stops at 1.3000-10 was tripped but more selling interests should emerge around 1.3040-50 with bigger stops tipped above 1.3050 and 1.3090-00 (offers below). On the downside, bids from various parties (including sovereign names and real money accounts) are raised to 1.2980-90 and also in good size at 1.2950-60 with stops building up below latter level, fresh demand should emerge around 1.2920 as well as 1.2900 with sizeable stops building up below 1.2870-75. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Forex Trade Ideas | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Trade Idea: GBP/USD – Buy at 1.6120Yesterday’s rally above previous resistance at 1.6188 signals low has been formed at 1.6067 earlier this week and consolidation with upside bias remains, above yesterday’s high of 1.6203 would bring a stronger rebound for a strong correction of recent decline to 1.6215-20 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.6310-1.6067), then 1.6240-50, however, reckon resistance at 1.6273 would cap upside and bring another decline later. Trade Idea: EUR/USD – Buy at 1.2945As the single currency has retreated after yesterday’s rally to 1.3032, suggesting minor top is formed and consolidation below this level would take place with mild downside bias for pullback to the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.2975), however, reckon the upper Kumo (now at 1.2923) would limit downside and bring another rise later. A break of said resistance would extend the rise from 1.2804 low for a stronger retracement of recent decline from 1.3172 towards 1.3042-48 (100% projection of 1.2804-1.2968 measuring from 1.2878 and previous resistance) Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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