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Mid-Day Report: Euro Recovers Mildly, Risk Markets Pared Gain after Weak US Job DataEuro recovers mildly today but remains generally weak. US futures pared some earlier gains after weaker than expected job data while European equities also turned flat. Initial jobless claims rose back to 383k level in the week ended May 25 versus expectation of 370k. ADP report showed expansion of 133k in private sector jobs in May, missing but not far below expectation of 135k. Challenger report showed planned lay off jumped sharply by 67% yoy in May to nearly 62k. Nonetheless, the more important figure is Friday's non-farm payroll which is expected to show 150k expansion, which is still achievable based on 133k ADP. Also released from US, Q1 GDP was revised down to 1.9% annualized. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
EUR/USD Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.2316; (P) 1.2410 (R1) 1.2459; More..... Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the downside with 1.2470 minor resistance intact. Current decline, which is part of the larger fall from 1.4939, is expected to continue to 100% projection of 1.4246 to 1.2625 from 1.3486 at 1.1865 which is close to 1.1875 low. On the upside, above 1.2470 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring consolidation. But recovery should be limited by 1.2641 and bring another fall. |
| Special Report |
Direct Yen-Yuan Trading Marks a Step Forward to Yuan InternationalizationJapanese yen (yen) and the Chinese Renminbi (yuan) will be allowed for direct trading from June 1. This is the first time China allows a major foreign currency, other than the US dollar, to trade directly against the RMB. While some analysts do not view this as an important issue other than reducing transaction cost and lowering settle risks, we believe this is one of the various steps that the Chinese government has taken for internationalizing the RMB. Going forward, the government would adopt further policies to promote the use of the RMB, increase the flexibility of the foreign exchange market and relax constrains in the capital accounts so as to transform the RMB into a truly global currency, Ireland's Ability to Access Bond Markets Not Certain although Fiscal Pact Likely ApprovedIt is likely that Ireland will pass the European fiscal pact on the referendum on May 31 as the latest polls showed that 60% of the voters supported the deal. Unfortunately, the market anticipates that the country might not be able to tap public funding later this year as the government planned. That means, the debt-ridden peripheral country in the Eurozone, despite its efforts in meeting the fiscal target and the return to growth in 2011, may need further bailout from the EU, the IMF or other international sources besides the 67.5B euro borrowed. |
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Orders and Options Watch | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
US Session: Orders and Options WatchEUR: Although the single currency rebounded from intra-day low of 1.2358 on buying by short-term specs, price ran into fresh offers around 1.2425-30 and price has retreated in New York opening, stops from these specs at 1.2380 were tripped, however, buying interests (option defensive) are still noted at 1.2355-65 with stops building up below 1.2350 and 1.2320. On the upside, selling interests are lined up at 1.2425-30 as well as 1.2475-80 with more sell orders expected at 1.2500-10 and further out at 1.2550-60, stops are placed above 1.2580. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD – Sell at 1.5615Despite intra-day marginal fall to 1.5463, as the British pound has rebounded from there in London morning, suggesting consolidation above this level would be seen and above the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.5533) would bring retracement to the Ichimoku cloud bottom (now at 1.5604) but renewed selling interests should emerge around 1.5615 (previous resistance), bring another decline. Trade Idea: EUR/JPY – Sell at 100.00Yesterday’s selloff signals recent decline remains in progress and we have relabeled the 4-hour chart as illustrated, an impulsive wave structure is unfolding with an extended wave 3 still taking place in its minor wave v of iii of 3, hence further weakness to 97.30-35, then 97.00 would be seen, however, loss of near term downward momentum should prevent sharp fall below 96.50 Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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