Thursday, May 3, 2012

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 5-3-12 (trusted: contact@actionforex.com)

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Action Insight Weekly Report Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Euro Pared Losses after ECB Press Conference

Euro pares earlier loss recovers in early US session after ECB president Draghi said in the post meeting conference that interest rate cut wasn't discussed during the meeting. There were speculations that deepening recession in Eurozone could trigger at least some debate on rate cut within the ECB board. In addition, Draghi said that the instrument, the Securities Markets Program, is "still there" even though that was "neither infinite nor eternal". Though, he admitted that growth in Eurozone was dampened by "remaining tensions in some euro-area sovereign debt markets". ECB expects recovery to be gradual, subject with prevailing downside risks and outlook has become "more uncertain". Inflation outlook was seen as "broadly balanced". ECB left the key interest rate unchanged at 1.00% as widely expected.

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Featured Technical Report

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3106; (P) 1.3174 (R1) 1.3226; More.....

EUR/USD recovers after initial dip to 1.3095 but after all, it's staying in recent converging range as triangle consolidation continues. Breakout from 1.2994/3282 range is needed to clear the near term picture. Break of 1.3282 will indicate that consolidation from 1.3486 has completed and rebound from 1.2625 is resuming. On the downside, break of 1.2994 will revive the case that rebound from 1.2625 is finished and would possibly resume the larger decline from 1.4939.

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Economic Indicators Update

GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
22:45 NZD Unemployment Rate Q1 6.70% 6.20% 6.30% 6.40%
22:45 NZD Employment Change Q/Q Q1 0.40% 0.50% 0.10% 0.20%
01:00 CNY China Non-manufacturing PMI Apr 56.1 58
08:30 GBP PMI Services Apr 53.3 54.1 55.3
09:00 EUR Eurozone PPI M/M Mar 0.50% 0.60% 0.60%
09:00 EUR Eurozone PPI Y/Y Mar 3.30% 3.40% 3.60%
11:30 USD Challenger Job Cuts Y/Y Apr 11.20% -8.80%
11:45 EUR ECB Rate Decision 1.00% 1.00% 1.00%
12:30 EUR ECB Press Conference
12:30 USD Non-Farm Productivity Q1 P -0.50% -0.50% 0.90%
12:30 USD Unit Labor Costs Q1 P 2.00% 2.70% 2.80%
12:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims 365K 380K 388K
14:00 USD ISM Non-Manufacutring Composite Apr 53.5 55.3 56
14:30 USD Natural Gas Storage 31B 47B

Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: Although the single currency dropped to as low as 1.3095, euro quickly rebounded from low as comments from ECB's Draghi was not as dovish as expected, offers at 1.3170 were filled but more selling interests are still noted at 1.3200 and further out at 1.3240-50 with stops building up above 1.3250 as well as 1.3290-00. On the downside, some bids are tipped at 1.3120-25 and also at 1.3095-00 with stops placed below 1.3090 and further out at 1.3050.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD – Buy at 1.3130

Despite intra-day brief fall to 1.3095, lack of follow through selling and current rebound suggest an intra-day low is possibly formed and consolidation with mild upside bias is seen for test of the Ichimoku cloud (now at 1.3194-1.3206), break there would add credence to this view and stronger rebound towards yesterday’s high of 1.3242 would be seen but price should falter well below 1.3284 resistance.

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Trade Idea: EUR/JPY – Sell at 106.85

Euro’s rebound after falling briefly to 105.13 yesterday suggests consolidation would be seen and retracement to 106.55-60 cannot be ruled out, however, upside should be limited to 107.00 and bring another decline later. A break of said support would extend the fall from 108.00 towards previous support at 104.63 but break there is needed to retain bearishness and extend recent decline towards 104.00-10 later.

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

 


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