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| Action Insight Weekly Report | Markets Snapshot |
Daily Report: Euro Soft as EU Summit Lacked Inspiration, PMIs WatchedEuro remains broadly soft as the informal EU summit yielded nothing to restore investor confidence. Leaders reiterated their stance that they want Greece to stay in euro but insisted on its commitment to agreed bailout terms. Meanwhile, it's reported that the Eurogroup Working Group is already working on contingency plans in case of Greece exit. Eurobond was discussed and as expected, faced opposition from German as Merkel said it won't be a contribution to promoting growth. Dutch prime minister Rutte also rejected eurobonds as that would increase the country's borrowing cost. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
EUR/GBP Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 0.7990; (P) 0.8025; (R1) 0.8054; More. Intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains mildly on the downside for the moment. As noted before, recovery from 0.7949 is possibly finished at 0.8101 already and deeper decline should be seen to 0.7949 first. Break will confirm resumption of recent decline and should target next important fibo level at 0.7782. On the upside, above 0.8060 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside and bring another recovery. But upside should be limited by 38.2% retracement of 0.8505 to 0.7949 at 0.8161 and bring fall resumption eventually. |
| Special Report |
BOE's Decision In May Ignored Deterioration Of Eurozone CrisisThe BOE unveiled in the minutes for the May meeting that, while the members voted unanimously to leave interest rates unchanged, they were split in the asset purchase program. David Miles opted for increasing the size of purchases by 25B pound while Adam Posen indicated he might join Miles' camp at the next meeting even though he would leave the Committee when his term ends on August 31. The tone of the minutes was more dovish than the April one, reflecting concerns over the situation in the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis. BOJ Likely To Enhance Purchases Of Long-Term Assets In JulyThe Bank of Japan announced to leave the uncollateralized overnight call rate unchanged at 0-0.1% and the Asset Purchase Program at 70 trillion yen. The next timing for the BOJ to implement further easing would be in July. By that time, policymakers would have known the outcome of the June FOMC meeting and the Greek election. Moreover, it’s also the time for the interim assessment of the BOJ’s April outlook. The biggest headache for the central bank is the undersubscription of the purchase program. The situation has deteriorated since mid-April and got more pronounced in May. |
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Orders and Options Watch | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
European Session: Orders and Options WatchEUR: The single currency has remained under pressure after falling to 22 month low of 1.2546 yesterday on eurozone debt crisis and although bids in good size are noted at 1.2545-50 and also 1.2520-25, stops below large 1.2500 option barrier are now in focus. On the upside, offers from various parties (including real money accounts) are lined up at 1.2600, 1.2650 and further out at 1.2690-00 with some stops building up above 1.2700. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Trade Idea: GBP/USD – Sell at 1.5850Although cable has remained under pressure after breaking previous support at 1.5732 yesterday, loss of near term downward momentum should prevent sharp fall below 1.5650-55 (50% projection of 1.6124-1.5732 measuring from 1.5849) and reckon 1.5634 minor support would hold from here, risk from there is seen for a corrective rebound to take place later. Trade Idea: EUR/USD – Sell at 1.2700Although yesterday’s selloff signals recent decline is still in progress, loss of near term downward momentum suggests downside would be limited to 1.2530/35 and reckon 1.2500 psychological support would hold from here, risk has increased for a corrective rebound to take place, however, renewed selling interests should emerge around 1.2690-00 and bring another fall later. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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