Friday, May 11, 2012

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 5-11-12 (trusted: contact@actionforex.com)

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Action Insight Weekly Report Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Canadian Dollar Rebounds on Job Data, Euro Hovers Below 1.3

Canadian dollar is trying to rebound against dollar in early US session as data showed stronger than expected growth in the job markets. Net change in employment came in at 58.2k in April versus expectation of 10.0k. Meanwhile, unemployment rate edged slightly up to 7.3%. Meanwhile, headline PPI in US unexpectedly dropped -0.2% mom in April and slowed more than expected to 1.9% yoy. Core CPPI also slowed to 2.7% yoy. Markets are generally steady though, with dollar and yen on a firm tone.

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Featured Technical Report

USD/CAD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9987; (P) 1.0009; (R1) 1.0040; More.

USD/CAD drops sharply in early US session but there is no change in the near term outlook. Consolidation from 1.0063 is still in progress and deeper fall could be seen. But downside is expected to be contained above 0.9922 support and bring rise resumption. As noted before, whole consolidation pattern from 1.0656 is finished already at 0.9799. Above 1.0063 will target trend line resistance at 1.0102 next. Sustained there should confirm this bullish case and target 1.0522/0656 resistance zone next.

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Special Reports

Greece's Exit Less Likely Than Market Speculations

The Greek election result has dramatically raised market speculations of the country to exit the Eurozone. However, given that over 70% of voters in Greece prefer the country to retain in the 17-nation bloc and a default on Greek sovereign debts would be disastrous for the official sectors including the IMF, the ECB and the EU. We expect the Syriza party will fail to form a coalition government and trigger another election in June. Whether the Syriza will become the biggest party is uncertain. However, we expect the IMF and the EU will make more concessions with the new government, hoping to resolve the deadlock and alleviating the negative impacts of the current foggy situation. Yet, whether the compromise would resolve the sovereign problems in Greece is not guaranteed.

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PBOC May Cut RRR After More Rounds Of Reverse Repos

China's 7-day repo rate dropped almost -30bps to settle at 3.34% yesterday amid expectations that the government will inject more liquidity to the market. Although speculations of a RRR reduction before the Labor holiday in early May was in vain, the PBOC did injected RMB 65B in cash through 7-day reverse repo on May 3. Judging from past experience, it is likely that the government will follow up with RRR cut in coming weeks, though increasing the liquidity in the market.

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Economic Indicators Update

GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:50 JPY Japan Money Stock M2+CD Y/Y Apr 2.60% 2.90% 3.00%
01:30 CNY CPI Y/Y Apr 3.40% 3.40% 3.60%
01:30 CNY PPI Y/Y Apr -0.70% -0.50% -0.30%
05:30 CNY Industrial Production Y/Y Apr 9.30% 12.10% 11.90%
05:30 CNY Fixed Assets Inv YTD/Y Apr 20.20% 20.40% 20.90%
05:30 CNY Retail Sales Y/Y Apr 14.10% 15.10% 15.20%
06:00 EUR German CPI M/M Apr 0.20% 0.10% 0.10%
06:00 EUR German CPI Y/Y Apr 2.10% 2.00% 2.00%
08:30 GBP PPI Input M/M Apr -1.50% -0.90% 1.90% 1.70%
08:30 GBP PPI Input Y/Y Apr 1.20% 2.10% 5.80% 5.60%
08:30 GBP PPI Output M/M Apr 0.70% 0.40% 0.60%
08:30 GBP PPI Output Y/Y Apr 3.30% 2.90% 3.60% 3.70%
08:30 GBP PPI Output Core Y/Y Apr 2.30% 1.90% 2.50%
12:30 CAD Net Change in Employment Apr 58.2K 10.0K 82.3K
12:30 CAD Unemployment Rate Apr 7.30% 7.30% 7.20%
12:30 USD PPI M/M Apr -0.20% 0.00% 0.00%
12:30 USD PPI Y/Y Apr 1.90% 2.10% 2.80%
12:30 USD PPI Core M/M Apr 0.20% 0.20% 0.30%
12:30 USD PPI Core Y/Y Apr 2.70% 2.80% 2.90%
13:55 USD U. of Michigan Confidence May P 76.4 76.4

Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: Traders took any recovery as fresh selling opportunity and euro has slipped again after intra-day brief bounce from 1.2905 to 1.2956, more selling interests from short-term specs and funds are reported at 1.2975-80 and further out at 1.3000 with some stops placed above latter level, however, larger sell orders are tipped at 1.3040-50 and also at 1.3065-70. On the downside, option defensive bids are still noted above 1.2900 barrier with stops placed below there but fresh demand from Asian sovereign names is seen further out at 1.2870 and 1.2850 (where next barrier is located).

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD – Sell at 1.6155

As the British pound has fallen again after brief recovery, suggesting the decline from 1.6304 top is still in progress and further weakness to 1.6040 would be seen, however, near term oversold condition should limit downside to previous support at 1.6009 and psychological support at 1.6000 should hold on first testing, risk from there is seen for a rebound later.

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Trade Idea: EUR/JPY – Sell at 105.00

Although euro retreated from yesterday’s high of 103.78, as long as this week’s low at 102.76 holds, further consolidation would be seen and recovery to 104.00 is likely, however, upside should be limited to 104.45 (this week’s high) and renewed selling interests should emerge around 105.00, bring another decline. A break of said support would extend recent fall to 102.00, then 101.50

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

 


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