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| Action Insight Weekly Report | Markets Snapshot |
Mid-Day Report: Greece Exit Worries Sent Markets LowerGreece is again in spotlight after former prime minister Papademos said yesterday that "risk of Greece leaving the euro is real". IMF chief Lagarde said that Eurozone is "at the very epicenter of the crisis". Greece exit from Eurozone is not a preferred option and urged Greece to "do a lot more". But Lagarde also said IMF and others have to be "prepared for all possible situations". There are talks that Greece exit could open doors to other peripherals including even Spain and Italy. And an immediate risks for European bank is deposit flight from indebted nations. Fitch ratings said that non-resident investors are pulling fund out of Spain and Italian public debt in Q1 and the trend of outflows could continue in the coming quarters. The EFSF said that EUR 18b will be disbursed through National Bank of Greece to four biggest commercial banks in Greece as they lacked enough capital to be considered solvent. It's reported that ECB has set up a working group, run by Executive Board member Asmussen, on preparation for escalation of the crisis in Greece. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
EUR/USD Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.2683; (P) 1.2685 (R1) 1.2689; More..... The break of 1.2625/41 support zone suggest that fall from 1.3485, as well as the larger decline from 1.4939 is resuming. Intraday bias remains on the downside and current fall should now target 61.8% projection of 1.4246 to 1.2625 from 1.3486 at 1.2484 next. On the upside, though, above 1.2824 minor resistance will indicate short term bottoming after drawing support from 1.2625. In that case, stronger rebound could be seen back to 1.3 psychological and above first. |
| Special Report |
BOE's Decision In May Ignored Deterioration Of Eurozone CrisisThe BOE unveiled in the minutes for the May meeting that, while the members voted unanimously to leave interest rates unchanged, they were split in the asset purchase program. David Miles opted for increasing the size of purchases by 25B pound while Adam Posen indicated he might join Miles' camp at the next meeting even though he would leave the Committee when his term ends on August 31. The tone of the minutes was more dovish than the April one, reflecting concerns over the situation in the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis. BOJ Likely To Enhance Purchases Of Long-Term Assets In JulyThe Bank of Japan announced to leave the uncollateralized overnight call rate unchanged at 0-0.1% and the Asset Purchase Program at 70 trillion yen. The next timing for the BOJ to implement further easing would be in July. By that time, policymakers would have known the outcome of the June FOMC meeting and the Greek election. Moreover, it’s also the time for the interim assessment of the BOJ’s April outlook. The biggest headache for the central bank is the undersubscription of the purchase program. The situation has deteriorated since mid-April and got more pronounced in May. |
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Orders and Options Watch | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
US Session: Orders and Options WatchGBP: Despite falling to as low as 1.5677 in London session in part due to the release of BOE meeting minutes, M&A related demand out of Middle East lifted cable from low and similar demand are still noted at 1.5680-90 and further out at 1.5650. On the upside, offers from UK clearer and funds are lined up at 1.5750-60 and also from 1.5780 up to 1.5800, larger sell orders are tipped further out at 1.5820 and 1.5845-50 with stops building up above latter level. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Forex Trade Ideas | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Trade Idea Update: USD/JPY – Hold short at 80.10Despite overnight brief rise to 80.15, the subsequent retreat has retained our bearishness and consolidation with downside bias remains for weakness to 79.23-28 (previous minor support and current level of the Ichimoku cloud bottom), however, a sustained breach below there is needed to signal the rebound form 79.01 has ended and bring retest of this level, otherwise, further consolidation would take place. Trade Idea: AUD/USD – Sell at 0.9935As aussie has fallen again after brief recovery to 0.9935 yesterday, suggesting recent decline is still in progress and weakness to 0.9700 would be seen, however, loss of near term downward momentum should prevent sharp fall below previous support at 0.9664 and risk from there has increased for a corrective rebound to take place soon. Above 0.9800 would bring recovery to 0.9850 and possibly 0.9900 but renewed selling interest should emerge around 0.9935 and bring such a decline to aforesaid downside targets. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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