Tuesday, May 22, 2012

Action Insight Daily Report 5-22-12 (trusted: contact@actionforex.com)

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Action Insight Weekly Report Markets Snapshot

Daily Report: Consolidations Continue, Focus Shifting to Wed's EU Summit

Markets continue to consolidate as focus are gradually shifting to the informal EU summit on Wednesday. Two topics are expected to be discussed, growth and Eurobonds. Anti-austerity voice gained much momentum in recent months and European leaders are expected to discuss some growth strategies to counter that. European Council President Van Rompuy noted that this week's diner meeting will pave the way to decisions on growth measures in the formal summit in June. Meanwhile, ECB Executive Board Member Asmussen noted yesterday that's the discussion shouldn't be growth versus austerity as Eurozone needs both. Asmussen said that the " fiscal compact can be complemented by growth-enhancing measures" but the "fiscal compact cannot be renegotiated or softened".

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Featured Technical Report

AUD/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9839; (P) 0.9879; (R1) 0.9954; More

A temporary low is in place at 0.9794 and intraday bias is turned neutral for consolidations. Stronger recovery could be seen to 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 0.9971) and above. but upside should be limited well below 1.0225 support turned resistance and bring fall resumption. Below 0.9794 will extend the whole decline from 1.0852 to 0.9663 support first, then 161.8% projection of 1.0852 to 1.0225 from 1.0473 at 0.9459.

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Special Report

China Watch - Wen Reiterates to 'Maintain Growth'

During his field study in Wuhan, capital of China's Hubei province, Premier Wen Jiabao urged enhanced efforts to maintain economic growth which has moderated rapidly since the last quarter of 2011. Wen's comments indicated that the country has placed growth in a higher priority than before and more easing measures are anticipated to be put forward. We expect further RRR reduction. Yet, besides this, there are several other ways the government would consider in bolstering growth.

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Economic Indicators Update

GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
3:00 NZD RBNZ 2-Year Inflation Expectation Q2 2.40% 2.50%
8:30 GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing (GBP) Apr -22.8B 15.9B
8:30 GBP CPI M/M Apr 0.60% 0.30%
8:30 GBP CPI Y/Y Apr 3.10% 3.50%
8:30 GBP Core CPI Y/Y Apr 2.00% 2.50%
8:30 GBP RPI M/M Apr 0.60% 0.40%
8:30 GBP RPI Y/Y Apr 3.40% 3.60%
14:00 EUR Eurozone Consumer Confidence May A -20.5 -19.9
14:00 USD Existing Home Sales Apr 4.60M 4.48M

Orders and Options Watch

European Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: Despite yesterday's retreat from 1.2813 to 1.2725, the single currency found decent demand there and staged another bounce in New York on buying by semi-official names on comments from Merkel and Hollande together with risk appetite, however, offers from U.S. and French names are still noted at 1.2820-25 and further out at 1.2850 with stops placed above latter level. On the downside, good size bids are reported at 1.2760-70 and buying interests from same parties remain at 1.2725-30 with stops building up below 1.2720 and 1.2700.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: USD/CHF – Buy at 0.9330

Failure to extend yesterday’s rebound and the subsequent fall from 0.9438 suggests near term downside risk remains for the fall from 0.9500 (last week’s high) to bring correction of recent upmove, below 0.9371 would extend weakness to previous support at 0.9335, however, 0.9309 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 0.9191-0.9500) should hold and bring another rebound later.

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Trade Idea: GBP/USD – Sell at 1.5930

Cable’s rebound after last week’s selloff to 1.5732 suggests a minor low is formed there and consolidation with mild upside bias is seen for retracement to previous support at 1.5889, however, renewed selling interests should emerge around 1.5930-35 and bring another decline later. Below said support would extend weakness to 1.5700 but loss of near term momentum should prevent sharp fall below 1.5670-75

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights


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