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Daily Report: Dollar Surges as Risk Aversion Dominates on GreeceRisk aversion dominates global markets today as worsening Greece situation weigh on sentiments. After failing to form a coalition government following nine days of negotiations, political leaders will meet with Greek president Papoulias today again to organize another election in June, possibly on June 10 or 17, and put together a caretaker government. But would a new election solve the problems? The inability to for a coalition showed the division between pro-bailout and anti-austerity camp were so even that there cannot be any conclusion made despite the negotiation effort. The anti-austerity Syriza might be a front-runner to win the next election as latest poll showed. But we'll be reminded that over 70% of Greeks indicated their intention to stay in Eurozone. So, Syriza's win chance is far from being certain. And, no one could guarantee that the deadlock won't repeat in June after next election. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
AUD/USD Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 0.9900; (P) 0.9957; (R1) 0.9993; More AUD/USD's decline resumed after brief consolidation and reaches as low as 0.9875 so far. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 100% projection of 1.0852 to 1.0225 from 1.0473 at 0.9846 next. Break will target 0.9663 support and possibly below to 161.8% projection at 0.9459. On the upside, above 1.0014 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But recovery should be limited below 1.0225 support turned resistance and bring fall resumption. |
| Special Report |
Eurozone Avoids Recession Temporarily, More Negative Effects To Be Seen In 2Q12The Eurozone economy turned out to be better than expected in 1Q12. Notwithstanding consensus forecast that the region would technically fell to recession with two consecutive quarters of contractions, the flash GDP data came in flat, compare with 4Q12's -0.3% drop. Despite the apparently stronger than expected growth figure, the upside surprise mainly concentrated in a few countries and more peripheral economies, e.g.: Italy, have confirmed sharp recession. Investors should remain cautious about the Eurozone economic outlook. While the preliminary data still has chance to be revised lower, deep contraction might actually be reflected in the second quarter due to member countries' fiscal consolidation. |
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Orders and Options Watch | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
European Session: Orders and Options WatchEUR: The single currency has continued to head south on renewed concerns over eurozone debt crisis and option barrier at 1.2700 was just breached, there were waves of foreign investors selling Italian and Spanish bond and the situation seemed worsened recently. After triggering series of barriers all the way from 1.2900 down to 1.2700, next major barrier is located at 1.2600 (another one at 1.2625), some bids are reported at 1.2770, 1.2750 and also above both barriers. On the upside, offers from various parties remain at 1.2735-40 and also at 1.2775-80 with mixture of offers and stops tipped at 1.2810-20 but larger sell orders are expected around 1.2850-60. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Trade Idea: GBP/USD – Sell at 1.6040Yesterday’s selloff together with the breach of psychological support at 1.6000 suggests the fall from 1.6304 top is still in progress for a stronger correction of the rise from 1.5603 and further weakness to 1.5920 and possibly to 1.5900, however, near term oversold condition should limit downside to 1.5871 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.5603-1.6304) and reckon 1.5850 would hold on first testing, risk from there is seen for another rebound later. Trade Idea: EUR/USD – Sell at 1.2780As the single currency has remained under pressure after yesterday’s selloff from 1.2869, suggesting recent decline is still in progress and further weakness to 1.2650 would be seen, however, near term oversold condition should limit downside to recent low of 1.2624 and risk from there is seen for a strong rebound later. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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