Tuesday, May 29, 2012

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 5-29-12 (trusted: contact@actionforex.com)

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Sentiments Weak on Spain Worry, China Said No to Large Scale Stimulus

The boost from China stimulus talk was rather brief as China ruled out the chance for another large-scale stimulus program. Also, sentiments are weighed down by worries on Spain's banking sector. European equity indices are mostly flat at the time of writing while Euro remains soft in range against dollar and yen. US futures, though, point to a mildly high open. Commodity currencies' recovery also lost momentum ahead of US session. Dollar index is staying firm above 82 level despite the retreat earlier today.

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Featured Technical Report

GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5663; (P) 1.5689; (R1) 1.5707; More...

Consolidation from 1.5636 temporary is still in progress and more sideway trading might be seen. Indeed, stronger recovery to 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 1.5765) cannot be ruled out. But strong resistance should be seen at 1.5874 to limit upside and bring fall resumption. Break of 1.5636 will target 1.5234 low.

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Special Report

Ireland's Ability to Access Bond Markets Not Certain although Fiscal Pact Likely Approved

It is likely that Ireland will pass the European fiscal pact on the referendum on May 31 as the latest polls showed that 60% of the voters supported the deal. Unfortunately, the market anticipates that the country might not be able to tap public funding later this year as the government planned. That means, the debt-ridden peripheral country in the Eurozone, despite its efforts in meeting the fiscal target and the return to growth in 2011, may need further bailout from the EU, the IMF or other international sources besides the 67.5B euro borrowed.

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Economic Indicators Update

GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:30 JPY Unemployment Rate Apr 4.60% 4.50% 4.50%
23:30 JPY Household Spending Y/Y Apr 2.60% 2.50% 3.40%
23:50 JPY Retail Trade Y/Y Apr 5.80% 6.00% 10.30%
06:00 CHF UBS Consumption Indicator Apr 1.41 1.22 1.2
10:00 GBP CBI Reported Sales May 21 -8 -6
12:00 EUR German CPI M/M May P -0.20% -0.10% 0.20%
12:00 EUR German CPI Y/Y May P 2.10% 2.10% 2.10%
13:00 USD S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 Y/Y Mar -2.60% -2.70% -3.50%
14:00 USD Consumer Confidence May 64.9 69.5 69.2

Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: Although the single currency rebounded briefly in European morning on demand from Middle East names, price retreated again as traders targeting stops below 1.2490, however, option related bids are still noted above 1.2500 (NY cut) and more buying interests are tipped above option barriers at 1.2480 and further out at 1.2450. On the upside, offers from a Dutch bank remain at 1.2575-80 and also at 1.2600 with mixtures of offers and stops seen around 1.2625-30 and 1.2690-00.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF – Buy at 0.9500

Despite intra-day brief rise to 0.9606, as the greenback has retreated after faltering below last week’s high of 0.9612, suggesting further consolidation would be seen and another corrective fall to yesterday’s low of 0.9529 is likely, however, renewed buying interests should emerge around 0.9500 (previous resistance) and bring another rise. A break of said resistance would confirm recent upmove has resumed and extend further gain to 0.9640-50

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Trade Idea: USD/CAD – Buy at 1.0150

As the greenback has retreated after rising to 1.0312 late last week, retaining our view that a minor top is formed and consolidation would be seen with mild downside bias for retracement to 1.0150-55, however, renewed buying interests should emerge around there and bring another rise later. A break of said resistance would signal the rise from 0.9800 is still in progress and further gain to 1.0330 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of entire fall from 1.0658-0.9800) would be seen

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

 


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