Monday, May 7, 2012

Action Insight Daily Report 5-7-12 (trusted: contact@actionforex.com)

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Action Insight Weekly Report Markets Snapshot

Daily Report: EUR/USD Breaks 1.3 after France and Greece Elections

Euro drops sharply as the week starts as election results in France and Greece raised concerns on the countries' commitment to Austerity measures and the stability in Eurozone. Socialist Francois Hollande won the French election with 52% vote, making him the first socialist candidate to be elected since 1981. That also ended the famous "Merkozy" leadership in Eurozone which pushed for regional wide austerity as they're still struggling with the on-going debt crisis. Hollande has criticized the German-led austerity program and stated that "austerity is not inevitability". Instead, Hollande emphasized giving "European construction a growth dimension". Moreover, he suggested that the ECB should act to help resolve the problems more actively and supports the joint issuance of Eurobonds. Without synergy between the two biggest economy in Eurozone, there will definitely be increased headwinds in pushing for reforms in the region.

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Featured Technical Report

EUR/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3048; (P) 1.3113 (R1) 1.3146; More.....

EUR/USD's sharp decline and break of 1.2994 support revives the case that whole rebound from 1.2625 is already completed at 1.3486. We'll now stay bearish as long as 1.3282 support holds and expect deeper fall to retest 1.2625 low first. Also, fall from 1.4939 is possibly resuming too and break of 1.2625 will target 61.8% projection of 1.4246 to 1.2625 from 1.3486 at 1.2484 next.

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Economic Indicators Update

GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:50 JPY BoJ Minutes
1:30 AUD Building Approvals M/M Mar 7.40% 3.20% -7.80% -8.80%
1:30 AUD NAB Business Confidence Apr 4 3
1:30 AUD Retail Sales M/M Mar 0.90% 0.20% 0.20% 0.30%
5:45 CHF Unemployment Rate Apr 3.10% 3.10%
7:00 CHF Foreign Currency Reserves (CHF) Apr 237.5B
7:15 CHF CPI M/M Apr 0.20% 0.60%
7:15 CHF CPI Y/Y Apr -0.90% -1.00%
8:30 EUR Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence May -15.3 -14.7
10:00 EUR German Factory Orders M/M Mar 0.50% 0.30%
12:30 CAD Building Permits M/M Mar 2.30% 7.50%

Orders and Options Watch

European Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency opened lower this morning after Friday's selloff and option barrier at 1.3000 were tipped, however, bids above next barrier at 1.2950 contained euro's downside so far and the pair has rebounded from intra-day low of 1.2956. At the moment, offers are still noted at 1.3070-75 and further out at 1.3095-00 with some stops building up above 1.3150 and 1.3180. On the downside, bids remain above said option barrier and more buying interests from Asian sovereign names are located at 1.2920-25 and 1.2900 (another barrier).

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: USD/JPY – Hold long entered at 79.85

Although dollar dropped initially to 79.64 again, as dollar has rebounded after holding at this level, suggesting further consolidation would be seen and another corrective bounce to the Ichimoku cloud (now at 80.28-34) would be seen, however, break of resistance at 80.61 is needed to signal low is formed and bring retracement of recent decline to previous support at 80.86 and possibly towards 81.00.

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Trade Idea: EUR/USD – Stand aside

Despite intra-day selloff to 1.2956, as the single currency has rebounded, suggesting consolidation would be seen and retracement to the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.3067) cannot be ruled out, however, previous support at 1.3095 should limit upside and bring another decline. A break of said support would extend recent decline from 1.3284 to 1.2950 and possibly 1.2920-25

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

 


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