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Daily Report: Euro Recovers on Solid German GDP, But Vulnerable to Greece DevelopmentEuro recovers mildly against dollar and yen today as risk market recover from recent selloff. Some support is obtained by German GDP data which showed 0.5% qoq growth in Q1 against expectation of 0.1% qoq. French GDP grew 0.0% qoq, meeting consensus. Some consolidations would possibly be seen in the common currency. But overtone is still soft as weighed down by uncertainties in Greece. In addition, things in other peripherals aren't much better. Spanish yield surged through 6.3% yesterday and would continue to be watched. Italian banks were downgraded by Moody's with negative outlook. The common currency is still vulnerable to deeper, and broad based selloff. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
EUR/JPY Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 101.96; (P) 102.66; (R1) 103.10; More EUR/JPY recovers mildly as it's trying to draw support from 61.8% retracement of 97.03 to 111.43 at 102.53. But with 103.77 minor resistance intact, intraday bias remains on the downside for further decline. Sustained trading below 102.53 will pave the way to retest 97.03 low. On the upside, above 103.77 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring consolidation. But strong resistance should be seen inside 104.61/108.00 zone to limit upside and bring fall resumption. |
| Special Report |
RBA Releases Dovish Minutes in MayThe May minutes released by the RBA came in more dovish than expected. Together with the SMP released on May 4, it suggested that policymakers are forecasting more moderate inflation levels than previously anticipated. Overall, the chance of further rate cut is a tug of war between apparently improving domestic economic indicators released recently and the foggy external environment especially in the Eurozone. |
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Orders and Options Watch | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
European Session: Orders and Options WatchEUR: Although the single currency extended recent decline to 1.2814 this morning in Asia, euro has recovered after finding buying interests above indicated option barrier at 1.2800, some profit-taking activities were spotted after comments from euro-group officials and option defensive bids are still noted at 1.2810-20. On the upside, offers from U.S. names are lined up at 1.2890-00 and also at 1.2930-40 with stops building up above 1.2950 and 1.2980. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Trade Idea: USD/JPY – Hold long entered at 79.75Despite yesterday’s selloff from 80.19 to 79.68, as the greenback found renewed buying interest there and has rebounded, retaining our bullishness and consolidation with upside bias remains for another rebound to said resistance. A break of said resistance at 80.19 would extend the rise from 79.43 for a stronger retracement of recent decline to 80.40 Trade Idea: GBP/USD – Sell at 1.6170Yesterday’s rebound after brief fall to 1.6051 suggests a minor low is formed and consolidation would be seen with mild upside bias for correction to 1.6150 but upside should be limited to resistance at 1.6182 and bring another decline later. A break of said support would signal the decline from 1.6304 top is still in progress and further weakness to 1.6040 would be seen Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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