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Daily Report: Euro Extends Decline as ECB Rejected Spain's Bankia PlanEuro broke below 1.25 against dollar after ECB rejected Spain's plan to recapitalize Bankia The idea was for Spain government to inject government bonds into Bankia, which then be used as collateral to get ECB funding. ECB urged that proper capital injection was needed and the plan was in danger of breaching the so called EU ban on "monetary financing", that is, violating the rules against central bank funding of governments. Also, Bank of Spain governor Miguel Angel Fernández Ordóñez announced to step down at the end of next week, a month earlier than planned on political pressure. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
EUR/JPY Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 98.90; (P) 99.42; (R1) 99.91; More EUR/JPY's decline resumed by taking out 99.38 temporary low and reached as low as 98.95 so far. Intraday bias is back on the downside. Current fall from 111.43 is expected to continue to retest 97.03 low next. On the upside, above 99.93 minor resistance will turn bias neutral again and bring consolidations. But break of 102.11 resistance will be needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish even in case of recovery. |
| Special Report |
Ireland's Ability to Access Bond Markets Not Certain although Fiscal Pact Likely ApprovedIt is likely that Ireland will pass the European fiscal pact on the referendum on May 31 as the latest polls showed that 60% of the voters supported the deal. Unfortunately, the market anticipates that the country might not be able to tap public funding later this year as the government planned. That means, the debt-ridden peripheral country in the Eurozone, despite its efforts in meeting the fiscal target and the return to growth in 2011, may need further bailout from the EU, the IMF or other international sources besides the 67.5B euro borrowed. |
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Orders and Options Watch | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
European Session: Orders and Options WatchEUR: The single currency has remained under pressure after breaking last week's low of 1.2495, barriers at 1.2490, 1.2480 and 1.2475 were all tripped and stops below next barrier at 1.2450 (large) are now in focus, some bids from Asian sovereign names are tipped at 1.2425-30 and further out at 1.2400. On the upside, offers from various parties (including funds and European names) are lined up at 1.2500-10 and further out at 1.2550-60 with stops building up above 1.2575-80 but fresh offers should emerge around 1.2620-30. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Trade Idea: GBP/USD – Sell at 1.5720Cable met renewed selling interest yesterday at 1.5717 and resumed recent decline as price dropped below 1.5630 (last week’s low), suggesting the selloff from 1.6304 top is still in progress and weakness to 1.5600-03 would be seen, however, loss of near term downward momentum should prevent sharp fall below 1.5580-85 (61.8% projection of 1.5849-1.5630 measuring from 1.5717) and reckon downside would be limited to 1.5550. Trade Idea: EUR/USD – Sell at 1.2625Although overnight breach of previous support at 1.2495 (last week’s low) confirms recent decline has resumed and weakness to 1.2450 would be seen, loss of downward momentum should prevent sharp fall below 1.2420-25 and price should stay above 1.2400, bring a much-needed correction later. Above the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.2516) would bring retracement to the Ichimoku cloud (now at 1.2548-60) but renewed selling interests should emerge around this week’s high of 1.2625, bring another selloff later. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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