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Daily Report: Risk Appetite Lifted by China Stimulus Talk, But Euro Stays SoftRisk appetite was lifted mildly in Asian session on talk that China is going to unveil a stimulus program that's over USD 300b, nearly half of the 2008 stimulus package. In addition, markets are hoping for additional reserve requirement ratio cut in Q3 and Q4, by 50bps in each quarter, plus a slightly slimmer change of benchmark lending rate cut. The talks lifted Asian equities broadly higher and helped commodity currencies recover mildly. Though, European majors remained generally pressured as the worries on Greece and Spain continued. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
EUR/JPY Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 99.37; (P) 99.80; (R1) 100.09; More EUR/JPY continues to stay in tight range above 99.38 temporary low for the moment and some more consolidations could be seen. But after all, upside is expected to be limited by 102.11 resistance and bring fall resumption. Below 99.38 will extend recent decline from 111.43 to retest 97.03 low next. Nonetheless, break of 102.11 resistance will indicate short term bottoming and would then bring stronger rebound back to 104.61 support turned resistance. |
| Special Report |
Ireland's Ability to Access Bond Markets Not Certain although Fiscal Pact Likely ApprovedIt is likely that Ireland will pass the European fiscal pact on the referendum on May 31 as the latest polls showed that 60% of the voters supported the deal. Unfortunately, the market anticipates that the country might not be able to tap public funding later this year as the government planned. That means, the debt-ridden peripheral country in the Eurozone, despite its efforts in meeting the fiscal target and the return to growth in 2011, may need further bailout from the EU, the IMF or other international sources besides the 67.5B euro borrowed. |
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Orders and Options Watch | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
European Session: Orders and Options WatchEUR: The single currency extended yesterday's fall to as low as 1.2510, however, indicated bids above last week's low of 1.2495 limited euro's downside so far and although stops are placed below 1.2490, more bids are reported above barriers at 1.2480, 1.2475 and 1.2470. On the upside, first layer of offers are noted at 1.2550 with some stops placed above 1.2575-80 and 1.2600 but sizeable sell orders remain at 1.2620-25 with bigger stops placed above there and further out at 1.2700. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Forex Trade Ideas | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Trade Idea: GBP/USD – Sell at 1.5850Although cable extended yesterday’s retreat to 1.5656 this morning in Asia, as the British pound found good support there and has staged a strong rebound, retaining our view that further consolidation above 1.5630 (last Friday’s low) would be seen and above 1.5725-30 would bring retracement of recent decline to 1.5790-00 but renewed selling interests should emerge around previous resistance at 1.5849 and bring another decline. Trade Idea: EUR/USD – Sell at 1.2690Although yesterday’s retreated from 1.2625 has kept euro under pressure and marginal weakness from here cannot be ruled out, break of Friday’s low of 1.2495 is needed to signal recent decline has resumed and extend further weakness to 1.2450-55, however, loss of momentum should prevent sharp fall below there and price should stay well above 1.2400-10. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Fundamental Highlights
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