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| Action Insight Weekly Report | Markets Snapshot |
Mid-Day Report: Risks Recover Mildly after Selloff, Sterling Pressured after BoE Inflation ReportGreece triggered selloff in risk markets seems to have exhausted today as markets recovered in early US session on US housing data. The near term situation is somewhat cleared that Council of State president Panagiotis Pikramenos will lead the caretaker government till election, which is now set to be on June 17 after political leaders met with Greek President Papoulias today. There are still much uncertainties on what's next for Greece but sentiments could stabilize for a session or two first. Meanwhile, Sterling was hit hard earlier today as BoE revised lower inflation and growth forecast in the quarterly inflation report. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
GBP/USD Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.5948; (P) 1.6031; (R1) 1.6073; More... GBP/USD drops to as low as 1.5888 so far today and touched mentioned 38.2% retracement of 1.5234 to 1.6300 at 1.5893. Intraday bias remains on the downside for further decline and sustained trading below 1.5893 will target 61.8% retracement at 1.5641 next. On the upside, above 1.5988 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations first before staging another fall. |
| Special Report |
BOE Revised Lower Growth and Inflation ForecastsThe BOE released a dovish quarterly inflation report in May, lowering both inflation and GDP growth forecasts from February projections. Policymakers also cited the worsening situation in the Eurozone would affect the UK's path to recovery and there was a "risk of a storm heading our way from the continent". Eurozone Avoids Recession Temporarily, More Negative Effects To Be Seen In 2Q12The Eurozone economy turned out to be better than expected in 1Q12. Notwithstanding consensus forecast that the region would technically fell to recession with two consecutive quarters of contractions, the flash GDP data came in flat, compare with 4Q12's -0.3% drop. Despite the apparently stronger than expected growth figure, the upside surprise mainly concentrated in a few countries and more peripheral economies, e.g.: Italy, have confirmed sharp recession. Investors should remain cautious about the Eurozone economic outlook. While the preliminary data still has chance to be revised lower, deep contraction might actually be reflected in the second quarter due to member countries' fiscal consolidation. |
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Orders and Options Watch | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
US Session: Orders and Options WatchEUR: Despite falling to 1.2682 earlier today in European session, the pair has rebounded in part due to risk appetite on recovery in Dow Future and bids from Asian names (some are for profit-taking purposes) are still noted from 1.2690 down to 1.2670 and further out at 1.2630-40. On the upside, offers are reported at 1.2770-80 and further out at 1.2800-10 with some stops placed above 1.2820 and 1.2850. A large option expiry at 1.2790 will cut off at 14:00GMT. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF – Buy at 0.9380As the greenback has retreated after intra-day brief rise to 0.9471, suggesting minor consolidation would be seen and test of the Kijun-Sen (now at 0.9409) would be seen, however, previous resistance at 0.9372 should limit downside and bring another rise later. A break of said resistance would extend recent upmove to 0.9500-05 (1.236 times projection of 0.8931-0.9335 measuring from 0.9002) Trade Idea: EUR/JPY – Sell at 103.75Although the single currency has fallen again after brief recovery yesterday, loss of near term downward momentum should prevent sharp fall below 101.00 and risk has increased for a corrective rebound, above yesterday’s high of 102.87 would bring retracement to 103.25-30 but renewed selling interests should emerge around 10375-80 and bring another decline. A break of 101.00 would extend recent downtrend to 100.50 Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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