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| Action Insight Weekly Report | Markets Snapshot |
Daily Report: Euro Soft ahead of ECB , New Zealand Dollar Tumbles on UnemploymentEuro remains generally soft as markets are awaiting today's ECB meeting. ECB is widely expected to hold its key interest rate at 1%, without a doubt. There has been increasing calls for restart of the Securities Markets Program, or SMP as Spanish 10 year yield has been pressing 6% level for some time. Meanwhile, Italian 10 year yield also stays above 5.5% level. Markets are getting nervous that Spanish yield could continue to march higher and eventually breach the unsustainable 7% level given the uncertainties on Spain's ability to fulfil its budget target. However, it seems that ECB is not ready to restart the SMP yet just after pausing it for less than three months since February. So a main focus in on whether Draghi will hint on restarting the SMP soon and upon what conditions would ECB do so. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
EUR/JPY Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 104.87; (P) 105.70; (R1) 106.29; More Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains on the downside as choppy fall from 108.00 continues. Deeper decline should be seen to 104.61 support. Break will confirm resumption of whole fall from 111.43 and should target target 61.8% retracement of 97.03 to 111.43 at 102.53 next. On the upside, above 106.54 minor resistance will turn bias neutral first. Further break of 108.00 will resume the rebound from 104.61 towards 111.43 high instead. |
| Special Report |
RBA Cut Cash Rate To 3.75%The RBA lowered the cash rate by -50bps to 3.75% in April as economic developments since the last meeting has weakened and inflation has moderated. The central acknowledged the growth later in the year would be 'below-trend' but a deep downturn is not likely. The Australian dollar, which slipped ahead of the meeting, declined further after the rate decision. |
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Orders and Options Watch | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
European Session: Orders and Options WatchEUR: The single currency remained under pressure after yesterday's selloff to 1.3122 on soft eurozone data and mixtures of bids and stops at 1.3120 as well as 1.3100 are now in focus, however, traders are unwilling to take too aggressive positions ahead of ECB rate decision at 11:45GMT (expected to keep rate unchanged at 1.00%), more stops are placed further out at 1.3050. On the upside, offers from European names and still noted at 1.3165-70 and also at 1.3195-3200 with combinations of offers and stops located further out at 1.3240-50 and larger sell orders are tipped from 1.3280 up to 1.3300. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Forex Trade Ideas | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Trade Idea: EUR/USD – Sell at 1.3200Yesterday’s selloff after breaking indicated support at 1.3200-05 confirms our view that top has been formed at 1.3284 earlier this week and consolidation with downside bias remains for retracement of recent rise to previous support at 1.3105 (same level as 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.2995-1.3284), break there would extend weakness to .1.3070/75 Trade Idea: USD/JPY – Buy at 79.95Although dollar has retreated after yesterday’s rise to 80.61, if our view that a temporary low has been formed at 79.64 is correct, downside should be limited to 79.95-00 and bring another rebound later, above said resistance would add credence to this view and bring a stronger bounce to previous support at 80.86 and possibly 81.00. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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