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Mid-Day Report: Yen Jumps as NFP Missed ExpectationsThe Japanese yen, and to a lesser extent dollar, strengthen broadly in early US session as Non-farm payroll report disappointed markets. NFP showed mere 80k job growth in US in June, comparing to expectation of 90k. May's figure, though, was revised slightly higher for 69k to 77k. The total figure for Q2 was 225k only, just slightly higher than 1/3 of Q1's 677k. Also, Q1's figure was even less than half of Q4's 492k. Unemployment rate was unchanged at 8.2%. European equities stay negative after the release while US futures point to lower open. The data, while not overwhelmingly negative, should add to speculation of QE3 from Fed. And, we'd probably see the Japanese yen take the lead from dollar and soar further before the week closes. Also, note that Spanish 10 year yield is back at 7%, suggesting despite all efforts, markets are still concerned with situation in Eurozone. European major currencies will remain pressured too. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
EUR/JPY Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 98.42; (P) 99.38; (R1) 99.97; More EUR/JPY dropped further in early US session and the breach of 98.32 minor support indicates that corrective rebound from 95.64 has already completed at 101.62. Intraday bias is back on the downside and deeper fall should be seen to retest 95.64 next. On the upside, though, above 99.10 minor resistance will mix up the near term outlook and turn bias neutral again. |
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Orders and Options Watch | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
US Session: Orders and Options WatchEUR: Although the U.S. NFP came in lower than expected (84K vs forecast of 106K), the greenback continued to move higher against European currencies in part due to risk aversion and mixture of bids and stops at 1.2280-90 is now in focus, however, some bids from sovereign and Middle East names are tipped further out at 1.2250-60 as well as 1.2210-20 (option related). On the upside, first layer of offers are now seen at 1.2365-75 and also at 1.2390-00 with stops building up above 1.2405-10 but more selling interests from funds should emerge around 1.2450-60 with sizeable stops only emerging above 1.2500-10. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF – Buy at 0.9680As dollar has risen again after brief pullback, suggesting a retest of recent high of 0.9771 would be seen, however, break there is needed to retain bullishness and signal medium term uptrend has finally resumed, bring further headway towards 0.9800 but near term overbought condition should limit upside to 0.9840-50 and risk from there is seen for a retreat later. Trade Idea: EUR/GBP – Hold short entered at 0.8060Current anticipated selloff together with the breach of indicated support at 0.7985 (last week’s low) add credence to our bearish view for resumption of recent decline and a retest of 0.7951 recent low would be seen, however, break there is needed to confirm and extend downtrend to 0.7936 (1.618 times projection of 0.9084-0.8531 measuring from 0.8831) and possibly towards 0.7895-00 Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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