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Mid-Day Report: Dollar Recovers as ISM Manufacturing Broke 50, Euro Retreats on Finnish CommentsWorse than expected economic data from US triggered mild pull back in risk markets as well as commodity currencies. The ISM manufacturing index unexpected dipped into contraction region at 49.7 in June. DOW pared earlier gains and is down more tan -50 pts at the time of writing. The development sent Aussie and Canadian mildly lower again dollar while then Japan yen is also trying to recover. Euro dipped mildly earlier today as firstly markets calmed down from EU summit optimism. Secondly, Finland and the Netherlands have expressed that they will block using ESM to buy government bonds in the secondary market. The recovery in dollar and yen doesn't warrant reversal yet. But some consolidations would likely be seen today and tomorrow. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
EUR/USD Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.2493; (P) 1.2592 (R1) 1.2753; More..... EUR/USD retreats mildly today but still, bias remains on the upside for 1.2747 resistance. Break there will confirm resumption of the corrective rise from 1.2287 and should target 100% projection of 1.2287 to 1.2747 from 1.2406 at 1.2866 next. Though, we'd expect strong resistance from 61.8% retracement of 1.3282 to 1.2287 at 1.2902 to limit upside. After all, fall from 1.4939 is still expected to continue for another low below 1.2287. But break of 1.2406 is needed to signal completion of the current consolidation first. |
| Special Report |
RBA To Pause In JulyWe expect the RBA would leave the cash rate unchanged at 3.5%. As indicated in the June Minutes, the rate cut last month was 'finely balanced' and 'recent domestic data had not suggested a significant weakening in conditions compared with forecasts a month earlier'. With the lack of shocks happened since the last meeting and the market optimism after the EU summit, policymakers would more likely leave the monetary stance unchanged in July than ease further. Yet, we retain the view that the RBA would lower interest rates rate further, probably in the last quarter of the year. |
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Orders and Options Watch | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
US Session: Orders and Options WatchEUR: Despite intra-day rebound to 1.2667, the single currency met renewed selling interests there and has slipped again in European session, bids at 1.2610-15 and 1.2600 were filled whilst stops below 1.2590 were just tripped, however, more buying interests are likely to emerge around 1.2580 and 1.2550-60 with more stops seen below 1.2520 and 1.2500. On the upside, offers from European names are expected at 1.2650-60 and sizeable sell orders remain at 1.2690-00 with stops building up above 1.2710 and 1.2740, followed by combination of offers and stops located at 1.2775-85. A large 1.2650 option is going to expire today NY cut. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD – Buy again at 1.5615Although the British pound has risen again after intra-day retreat to the Kijun-Sen and marginal gain to previous resistance at 1.5734 cannot be ruled out, loss of near term upward momentum should prevent sharp move beyond there and price should falter well below strong resistance at 1.5778, bring another retreat later today. Trade Idea: AUD/USD – Buy again at 1.0150Last week’s late rally together with the breach of indicated previous resistance at 1.0225 confirm recent rise from 0.9581 has resumed and would bring a stronger retracement of recent decline from 1.0857 to 1.0300 and possibly towards 1.0340-50, however, near term overbought condition should limit upside and reckon 1.0370 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.0857-0.9581) would limit upside Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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