Wednesday, July 18, 2012

Action Insight Daily Report 7-18-12 (trusted: contact@actionforex.com)

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Daily Report: Dollar Rebound Short Lived, Markets Stay in Range

Overnight's rebound attempt in dollar was rather brief and markets are staying in range in Asian session today. While Bernanke once again failed to provide any hints on additional easing, he did sound worrying on the global economic outlook and unsatisfied with the pace of improvement in the employment market. Fed is still expected to provide further monetary stimulus down the road but the questions remain on when and what kind of stimulus to provide. Bernanke will have his second part of the semi-annual testimony today, in front of House Financial Services Committee but might just repeat what he said yesterday.

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Featured Technical Report

USD/CAD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0124; (P) 1.0149; (R1) 1.0173; More.

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains mildly on the downside for 1.0100 support. Break there will extend the correction from 1.0445 and target 61.8% retracement of 0.9799 to 1.0445 at 1.0046. Though, we'd expect strong support from 1.0046 to contain downside to complete the correction and bring rebound. On the upside, above 1.0172 minor resistance will turn bias neutral first. Break of 1.0249 will shift favor to the case that correction from 1.0445 is finished and will flip bias back to the upside for 1.0362 for confirmation.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:50 JPY BoJ Minutes
0:30 AUD Westpac Leading Index M/M May 0.80% 0.50%
8:30 GBP BoE Minutes
8:30 GBP Jobless Claims Change Jun 5.0K 8.1K
8:30 GBP Claimant Count Rate Jun 4.90% 4.90%
8:30 GBP ILO Unemployment Rate 3M May 8.20% 8.20%
9:00 CHF ZEW (Expectations) Jul -43.4
11:00 USD MBA Mortgage Applications (JUL 13) -2.10%
12:30 USD Housing Starts Jun 745K 708K
12:30 USD Building Permits Jun 765K 784K
14:00 USD Fed Bernanke Testimony to House
14:30 CAD BoC Monetary Policy Report
14:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories -4.7M
18:00 USD Fed's Beige Book

Orders and Options Watch

European Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency went through a rollercoaster session overnight in New York, despite slipping to as low as 1.2189 on Bernanke's testimony, euro found decent demand there and reclaimed most of the lost as price bounced back above 1.2300 level. At the moment, whilst light stops at 1.2305 were tripped, offers are still noted at 1.2310-20 with more stops placed above there but selling interests from various names should emerge around 1.2330 up to 1.2350 with larger stops placed above 1.2370 and 1.2400-10. On the downside, some bids are tipped at 1.2250-60 and further out at 1.2210 with mixture of bids and stops located at 1.2180-85, followed by defensive bids at 1.2160-70 (for protection of 1.2150 barrier).

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: USD/JPY – Sell at 79.50

Dollar’s rebound after early cross-inspired fall to 78.69 suggests further consolidation above this support would take place and although retracement of recent fall to resistance at 79.40 cannot be ruled out, renewed selling interests should emerge around 79.50 and bring another decline. A break of said support would extend weakness to previous support at 78.62, then 78.50

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Trade Idea: GBP/USD – Stand aside

Although the British pound has staged a strong rebound after finding support at 1.5554 yesterday (price just held above the Ichimoku cloud top) and a retest of this week’s high of 1.5677 cannot be ruled out, break there is needed to extend the rise from 1.5393 low for a stronger retracement of recent decline to 1.5695-00, however, near term overbought condition should limit upside to 1.5718

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights


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