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Mid-Day Report: Dollar Jumped after ECB, PBoC Cut Rates, BoE Expanded QE, Euro Broadly PressuredDollar strengthened sharply today after ECB, BoE and PBoC added additional stimulus European equities were broadly stronger following the announcement while US stock futures also point to higher opens. So dollar's strength was note definitely due to risk aversion. And instead, it could be a reflection that ECB's rate cut and BoE's expansion in Asset Purchase Program were indeed not fully priced in earlier today. Aussie and Canadian dollar tried to jump after China's rate cut but failed to sustain gain. Instead, the greenback managed to extend gain after release of better than expected job market data. The ADP employment report showed 176k growth in June, comparing to expectation of 103k. Challenger report showed planned job cuts dropped -9.4% yoy in June. Meanwhile, initial jobless claims also improved to 374k in the week ended June 30. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
EUR/USD Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.2487; (P) 1.2547 (R1) 1.2586; More..... The sharp decline in EUR/USD today and break of 1.2406 support suggests that fall from 1.2747 has resumed. More importantly it argues that corrective pattern from 1.2287 has completed at 1.2747 already. Intraday bias is back on the downside for a test on 1.2287 low first. Break there will confirm resumption of whole decline from 1.3486, and that from 1.4939 and should target 61.8% projection of 1.3282 to 1.2287 from 1.2747 at 1.2132 next. On the upside, though, above 1.2527 minor resistance will mix up the near term outlook again and turn bias neutral. |
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Orders and Options Watch | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
US Session: Orders and Options WatchEUR: The single currency tumbled shortly after ECB lowered rates by 25 basis points, although the cut in refi and marginal lending rates were widely expected, traders did not anticipate a cut in deposit rates (now at 0.0%) and stops below 1.2500, 1.2450 as well as 1.2400 were all triggered, offers from various parties are now seen at 1.2440-50 with more selling interests likely to emerge around 1.2490-00 with some stops seen above 1.2510 as well as 1.2540-50. On the downside, mixtures of bids and stops is tipped at 1.2350 and further out at 1.2300-10 with sizeable stops placed just below recent low of 1.2288. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD – Sell at 1.2460As euro’s intra-day selloff has gathered momentum after ECB cut rates by 25 basis points and current breach of previous support at 1.2408 confirm recent decline has resumed and further weakness to 1.2350-60 would be seen, however, near term oversold condition should limit downside to 1.2320-25 and recent low at 1.2288 should remain intact, bring rebound later. Trade Idea: EUR/GBP – Hold short entered at 0.8060Despite euro’s rebound from 0.8007, as long as last week’s high of 0.8094 holds, bearishness remains for another decline for test of last week’s low at 0.7985, a break of this support would extend weakness for retest of recent low at 0.7951 but only below this latter support would confirm resumption of recent decline and next downside target remains at 0.7936 Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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