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Daily Report: High Beta Currencies Extend Rally, Euro ConsolidatesHigh beta currencies continue to ride on risk appetite and strengthen broadly today while European majors are lagging behind and stuck in range against dollar and yen. US Treasury Secretary Geithner met with German Finance Minister Schaeuble yesterday and issued a joint statement afterwards. They expressed "confidence in euro area member states' efforts to reform and move towards greater integration" and hailed improvements in Ireland and Portugal, as well as the "considerable efforts by Spain and Italy. Meanwhile, they also pledged to "cooperate closely with their partners when advancing the policy agenda in autumn to further stabilize global and European economies." And that included emphasis on the need for "ongoing international cooperation and coordination to achieve sustainable public finances, reduce global macroeconomic imbalances, and restore growth." Meanwhile, Greece was omitted from the statement. Geithner also met with ECB president Draghi but no statement was issued. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
USD/CAD Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.0001; (P) 1.0027; (R1) 1.0041; More. USD/CAD's fall extends further to as low as 1.0003 so far today. Intraday bias remains on the downside and current choppy fall from 1.0445 is going to go deeper and could target a retest on 0.9799 low. On the upside, above 1.0052 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring recovery. But break of 1.0231 resistance is needed to indicate near term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain mildly bearish. |
| Special Reports |
Fed To Extend Low-Rate Guidance Until 2015, QE3 To Be Announced In SeptemberWe expect the Fed would continue to leave the QE3 decision on hold in August as the better timing for action would be in September when two employment reports would be released for gauging the impacts of extension of operation twist in June. Moreover, a press conference will be held and staff forecasts will be published by then. Yet, what the Fed might do to drive sentiment in August might be extending the low rate guidance to 2015 and pledging the Fed would use whatever tools to stimulate the economy. ECB to Disappoint in AugustThe market has been eagerly awaiting the ECB meeting which will be held Thursday after President Mario Draghi's comment last week that the central bank would do whatever it can to preserve the euro. This has raised speculations that the ECB would resume bond purchases in the form of SMP. However, there are many hurdles to this move, in particular opposition of the Bundesbank. While the case of ECB purchases of bond has greatly increased due to worsening of situations in Spain and Italy, the timing of the move is an important issue. The ECB obviously prefer to see the Spanish government request support from the EFSF with conditionality in place before the central bank's involvement in bond purchases. However, this may not come earlier than the Thursday. In such case, we expect the ECB would not announce SMP in August, leaving it to September possibly. We also believe the central bank to leave interest rates unchanged this month, after the surprising rate cut in July. |
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Orders and Options Watch | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
European Session: Orders and Options WatchEUR: Although the single currency rebounded after falling to 1.2225 yesterday in part due to improved risk sentiment and some stops at 1.2270 were tripped, euro ran into indicated offers at 1.2290 and has retreated. At the moment, bids from funds are noted at 1.2250 and mixture of bids and stops in good size is located at 1.2220-25, followed by larger sell stop orders below 1.2190 and 1.2170. On the upside, offers remain at 1.2290-00 and also at 1.2330-40 with stops now building up above 1.2340-50 but more sizeable sell orders are tipped at 1.2380-00 region (for protection of 1.2400 barrier). | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Trade Idea: USD/CHF – Sell at 0.9850Yesterday’s breach of 0.9809 resistance adds credence to our view that a temporary low is formed and although price has retreated from 0.9823, near term upside risk remains for retracement to 0.9834 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 0.9972-0.9696), however, renewed selling interests should emerge around 0.9850 and bring another decline. Below 0.9755-60 (current level of the lower Kumo) would bring weakness to 0.9730, break there would signal rebound from 0.9696 has ended Trade Idea: GBP/USD – Hold short entered at 1.5750Although cable rebounded after falling to 1.5673 yesterday, as price has retreated from 1.5729 after meeting renewed selling interest around the Ichimoku cloud top, suggesting near term downside bias remains for the fall from 1.5768 to bring retracement of recent rise to support at 1.5666 (Friday’s low), then towards 1.5645-50 but reckon 1.5610-19 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.5452-1.5768 and current level of the Ichimoku cloud bottom) would limit downside Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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