Thursday, July 19, 2012

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 7-19-12 (trusted: contact@actionforex.com)

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Risk Rally Continues, High Beta Currencies Soar

Risk rally extends globally today with European major indices broadly higher. US futures also point to stronger opening. Aussie and Canadian remain firm across the board while Sterling is trying to catch up. Euro, on the other hand, continue to struggle in range against dollar and yen and dives to new record low against Aussie. Also supporting market sentiment, it's reported that based on a draft MOU, the EFSF will set aside funds to purchase Spanish government bonds in both the primary and secondary markets. Spain will need to make a separate request for it and the would be separate from the EUR 100b banking bail out.

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Featured Technical Report

AUD/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0310; (P) 1.0341; (R1) 1.0395; More

AUD/USD's rally continues today and reaches as high as 1.0443 in early US session. Intraday bias remains on the upside for 1.0473 resistance. As noted before, whole fall from 1.0852 has completed at 0.9588 already. Break of 1.0473 will target upper trend line resistance (now at 1.0698). On the downside, below 1.0382 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But downside of retreat should be contained by 1.0100 support and bring another rally.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
1:30 AUD NAB Business Confidence Q2 -2 -1
4:30 JPY All Industry Activity Index M/M May -0.30% -0.30% 0.10%
6:00 CHF Trade Balance (CHF) Jun 2.25B 2.21B 2.48B
8:00 EUR Eurozone Current Account (EUR) May 5.3B 4.6B
8:30 GBP Retail Sales M/M Jun 0.40% 0.90%
8:30 GBP Retail Sales Y/Y Jun 2.60% 3.00%
8:30 GBP Retail Sales w/Auto Fuel M/M Jun 0.60% 1.40%
8:30 GBP Retail Sales w/Auto Fuel Y/Y Jun 2.30% 2.40%
12:30 CAD Wholesale Sales M/M May 0.20% 1.50%
12:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims 370K 350K
14:00 USD Philly Fed Survey Jul -8 -16.6
14:00 USD Existing Home Sales Jun 4.62M 4.55M
14:00 USD Leading Indicators Jun -0.10% 0.30%
14:30 USD Natural Gas Storage 33B

Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

GBP: The British pound rose to a 1-month high mainly on active cross-buying in sterling especially against euro and although offers at 1.5700 were filled, selling interests remain at 1.5720-25 with stops remain above 1.5730 but fresh offers should emerge around 1.5750 and 1.5790-00. On the downside, light bids are noted at 1.5670-75 and mixture of bids and stops is located at 1.5630-40, more buy orders are located at 1.5600 with stops building up below 1.5580 and 1.5550 (large).

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD – Hold long entered at 1.5670

As cable has risen again after intra-day brief retreat to 1.5637, retaining our bullishness for recent upmove from 1.5393 low to extend further gain to 1.5722 (previous resistance), above this level would encourage for headway to 1.5750 and possibly 1.5770, however, near term overbought condition should limit upside to 1.5800.

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Trade Idea: AUD/USD – Buy at 1.0340

As aussie has rallied again after brief retreat to 1.0236 earlier this week, suggesting recent rise from 0.9581 low is still in progress and further gain to 1.0461 (100% projection of 0.9969-1.0330 measuring from 1.0100) and possibly towards previous resistance at 1.0474, however, near term overbought condition should prevent sharp rise beyond 1.0500-10 and reckon 1.0545-50 (1.236 times projection) would hold on first testing

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights


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