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Mid-Day Report: Euro's Weakness Persists, Making New Record Low Against Aussie and CanadianEuro's weakness persists in crosses today after German's Federal Constitutional Court said the decision on whether it will impose a temporary injunction to the country's participation in ESM and the fiscal compact on September 12. However, there is no timeline to rule on the the constitutional issues yet. Without EUR 500b ESM in operation, Eurozone is left only with the temporary EUR 440 EFSF with half of the fund already committed. Moody's criticized that "continuing delays add to the uncertainty and volatility in European financial markets and undermine the credibility of euro area policymakers' commitment and capacity to implement measures to resolve the sovereign and bank crisis". The ESM was originally planned to be in operation this month. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
EUR/JPY Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 96.57; (P) 96.83; (R1) 97.24; More The break of 96.42 suggests that recent decline in EUR/JPY has resumed and intraday bias is back on the downside for a test on 95.64 low first. Break will resume the whole decline from 114.43 and should target 61.8% projection of 111.43 to 95.64 from 101.62 at 91.86. Even in case of recovery, outlook will stay bearish as long as 98.13 minor resistance holds. However, note that break of 98.13 resistance will argue that price actions from 95.62 is developing into the three wave consolidation pattern and a test of 101.62 could then be seen before the fall from 111.43 resumes. |
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Orders and Options Watch | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
US Session: Orders and Options WatchEUR: Despite falling for most of the European session, the single currency has rebounded from intra-day low of 1.2176 as the U.S. retail sales data came in much weaker than economists expected, offers at 1.2200 and 1.2230 were filled, however, selling interests from funds are still noted at 1.2250 and also from 1.2270 up to 1.2300, followed by mixture of offers and stops at 1.2330-35, sizeable stops only emerging above 1.2350 and 1.2370. On the downside, bids from Asian names are now seen at 1.2165-75 with stops remain below option barrier at 1.2150, more defensive bids are tipped above next barrier at 1.2100. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Forex Trade Ideas | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF – Hold long entered at 0.9820Despite intra-day rebound to 0.9863, as the greenback has retreated after faltering below last week’s high of 0.9872 in part due to weaker-than-expected U.S. data, suggesting further consolidation would be seen, however, as long as intra-day support at 0.9785 holds, bullishness remains for another rebound, above said resistance at 0.9872 would confirm recent upmove has resumed and extend further gain to 0.9900 and possibly towards 0.9920-25 Trade Idea: EUR/JPY – Sell at 98.00Although euro has fallen again after brief recovery and weakness to 96.00 is likely, loss of near term downward momentum should prevent sharp fall below there and reckon previous chart support at 95.59 would hold on first testing, risk remains for a minor correction, above intra-day resistance at 97.80 would bring retracement to 98.00-05 where renewed selling interest should emerge, bring another decline. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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