Tuesday, July 17, 2012

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 7-17-12 (trusted: contact@actionforex.com)

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Mid-Day Report: Dollar Rebounds as Bernanke Talked Dovish But Refrained from Hints on Stimulus

Dollar is trying to rebound in early US session as Fed chairman delivers his semi annual testimony to Senate. Bernanke noted that the US economy has continued to recover but "activity appears to have decelerated somewhat during the first half of this year". Also, he said that fall in unemployment rate would likely be "frustratingly slow". He described that recent data had a "generally disappointing tone" and warned that the so-called fiscal cliff could push US back into a "shallow recession" early next year. He urged the Congress to "work to address the nation’s fiscal challenges in a way that takes into account both the need for long-run sustainability and the fragility of the recovery". Meanwhile, Bernanke also warned that possibility of worsening in Europe "remains a significant risk to the outlook". He pledged that Fed is “prepared to take further action as appropriate to promote a stronger economic recovery," but fell short of hinting on additional what and when additional stimulus would be implemented. Economic data released from US saw headline CPI unchanged at 1.7% yoy in June while core CPI moderated to 2.3% yoy. TIC capital flow came in at USD 55b in May. Industrial production rose 0.4% in June while capacity utilization dropped to 78.9%. NAHB housing market index improved much more than expected to 35 in July.

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Featured Technical Report

USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 78.60; (P) 78.93; (R1) 79.19; More...

USD/JPY drew some support ahead of 78.60 and recovered. The break of 79.13 minor resistance dampened the immediate bearish case and intraday bias is turned neutral first. On the downside, break of 78.60 will indicate completion of rebound from 77.66 and should target a retest of this low then. On the upside, break of 79.96 resistance will in turn indicate that rebound from 77.66 is resuming for another high above 80.61.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
22:45 NZD CPI Q/Q Q2 0.30% 0.50% 0.50%
22:45 NZD CPI Y/Y Q2 1.00% 1.10% 1.60%
01:30 AUD RBA Minutes
08:30 GBP CPI M/M Jun -0.40% -0.10% -0.10%
08:30 GBP CPI Y/Y Jun 2.40% 2.80% 2.80%
08:30 GBP Core CPI Y/Y Jun 2.10% 2.50% 2.20%
08:30 GBP RPI M/M Jun -0.20% 0.00% 0.00%
08:30 GBP RPI Y/Y Jun 2.80% 3.00% 3.10%
09:00 EUR German ZEW (Economic Sentiment) Jul -19.6 -20 -16.9
09:00 EUR German ZEW (Current Situation) Jul 21.1 30 33.2
09:00 EUR Eurozone ZEW (Economic Sentiment) Jul -22.3 -18.3 -20.1
12:30 CAD Manufacturing Shipments M/M May -0.40% 0.60% -0.80%
12:30 USD CPI M/M Jun 0% 0.00% -0.30%
12:30 USD CPI Y/Y Jun 1.70% 1.60% 1.70%
12:30 USD CPI Core M/M Jun 0.20% 0.20% 0.20%
12:30 USD CPI Core Y/Y Jun 2.20% 2.20% 2.30%
13:00 CAD BoC Rate Decision 1.00% 1.00% 1.00%
13:00 USD Net Long-term TIC Flows May 55.0B 45.7B $25.6B
13:15 USD Industrial Production Jun 0.40% 0.30% -0.10%
13:15 USD Capacity Utilization Jun 78.90% 79.20% 79.00%
14:00 USD Fed Bernanke Testimony to Senate
14:00 USD NAHB Housing Market Index Jul 35 30 29

Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: Although the single currency made another attempt on the upside, euro ran into heavy offers above 1.2300 level and has retreated from 1.2317 as short-term specs booked profit ahead of Bernanke's testimony later today. At the moment, bids from model and hedge funds are still noted at 1.2260-65 and further rout at 1.2215-20 and option defensive bids remain at 1.2160-80 region (for protection of 1.2150 barrier). On the upside, offers remain at 1.2315-20 and mixture of offers and stops is located at 1.2330-40 and more stops are placed above 1.2370, followed by combination of offers and stops at 1.2400-10.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: USD/JPY – Sell at 79.40

As dollar has rebounded after falling to 78.69 yesterday on cross-selling in yen, suggesting consolidation above this level would be seen and current breach of the Ichimoku cloud suggest upside risk remains for retracement of recent fall to resistance at 79.40, however, renewed selling interests should emerge there and bring another decline. A break of said support would extend weakness to previous support at 78.62, then 78.50

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Trade Idea: EUR/GBP – Sell at 0.7910

Although the single currency has fallen again after brief recovery, loss of near term downward momentum should prevent sharp fall below 0.7800/05 and reckon 0.7770-75 would hold from here, risk from there has increased for a corrective rebound to take place later. Above intra-day resistance at 0.7877 would bring minor correction but renewed selling interests should emerge around resistance at 0.7914 (Friday’s high) and bring another decline later.

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

 


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