Friday, July 27, 2012

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 7-27-12 (trusted: contact@actionforex.com)

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Euro Hold Gains as Germany Welcomed Draghi's Pledge

Euro is trying to extend this week's gain after Germany echoed ECB Draghi's comment and said that it will "do all that is politically required to maintain the Euro. Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble also issued a statement and welcomed Draghi's pledge to "take the necessary measures to secure the euro in the framework of the existing ECB mandate." Schaeuble also hailed efforts by Spain and Italy and noted that programs launched by Portugal and Ireland are "on the right track". Nonetheless, Schaeuble also emphasized that policymakers should also "take and implement the necessary measures to deal with the financial and confidence crisis" including "reform efforts of the countries themselves."

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Featured Technical Report

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2156; (P) 1.2243 (R1) 1.2368; More.....

EUR/USD edges higher today but lacks follow through buying to sustain above 1.2324 resistance yet. Nonetheless, intraday bias remains on the upside with 1.2170 minor support intact. A short term bottom is in place at 1.2042 on bullish convergence condition in 4 hours MACD. Further rally could be seen to 1.2747 key near term resistance (50% retracement of 1.3486 to 1.2042 at 1.2764.) On the downside, though, below 1.2170 minor support will mix up near term outlook and turn focus back to 1.2042 instead.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:30 JPY National CPI Core Y/Y Jun -0.20% 0.00% -0.10%
23:30 JPY Tokyo CPI Core Y/Y Jul -0.60% -0.60% -0.60%
23:50 JPY Retail Trade Y/Y Jun 0.20% 1.10% 3.60%
07:00 CHF KOF Leading Indicator Jul 1.43 1.2 1.16 1.15
12:00 EUR German CPI M/M Jul P 0.40% 0.40% -0.10%
12:00 EUR German CPI Y/Y Jul P 1.70% 1.70% 1.70%
12:30 USD GDP (Annualized) Q2 A 1.50% 1.40% 1.90%
12:30 USD GDP Price Index Q2 A 1.60% 1.60% 2.00%
13:55 USD U. of Michigan Confidence Jul F 72.5 72

Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency moved higher again in New York to a fresh 3-week high on report that EFSF may be used to buy Spanish and Italian bonds and offers at 1.2330-40 were filled, stops above 1.2350 are now in focus, more buy stop orders are placed above 1.2370, followed by combination of offers and stops located further out at 1.2400-10. On the downside, bids raised to 1.2265-70 and mixture of bids and stops is tipped at 1.2230-40 but fresh demand from various parties should emerge further out at 1.2190-00 with stops building up below there as well as 1.2170 (large).

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF – Sell at 0.9850

Although dollar has fallen again after intra-day brief bounce to 0.9809 (just faltered below the Kijun-Sen) and the decline from 0.9972 may extend bring a deeper correction of recent upmove to 0.9715-20 (previous resistance and 50% Fibonacci retracement of 0.9463-0.9972), loss of near term momentum should prevent sharp fall below 0.9679 (another previous resistance) and reckon downside would be limited to 0.9657 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement).

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Trade Idea: AUD/USD – Buy at 1.0300

As aussie has risen again after brief pullback on back the euro’s rally, suggesting the correction from 1.0445 has ended at 1.0170 and a retest of this level would be seen, break there would confirm the rise from 0.9581 low has resumed and extend further gain to 1.0461 (100% projection of 0.9969-1.0330 measuring from 1.0100) and possibly towards previous resistance at 1.0474

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

 

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