Tuesday, July 10, 2012

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 7-10-12 (trusted: contact@actionforex.com)

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Euro Stayed Weak Even Spanish Yield Retreated

Rebound in European equities might help lifted commodity currencies mildly today, but little support was provided to Euro. Markets are so far mildly positive about the news that EU officials are going to speed up and release as much as EUR 30b for Spain this month. Spanish 10 year yield is back below 7% level at the time of writing while Italian 10 year yield also head back towards 6% level. But there isn't strong enough sentiments to turn the tide on the common currency. Euro remain bounded in tight range against dollar, dipped against yen as well as Aussie.

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Featured Technical Report

EUR/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 97.58; (P) 97.86; (R1) 98.24; More

With 98.13 minor resistance intact, intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains on the downside. Current fall from 101.62 should extend to retest 95.64 first. break will resume the whole decline from 114.43 and should target 61.8% projection of 111.43 to 95.64 from 101.62 at 91.86. On the upside, however, above 98.13 minor resistance will mix up near term outlook and turn bias neutral again.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:01 GBP BRC Sales Like-For-Like Y/Y Jun 1.40% 2.00% 1.30%
23:01 GBP RICS House Price Balance Jun -22.00% -16.00% -16.00% -17.00%
23:50 JPY Japan Money Stock M2+CD Y/Y Jun 2.20% 2.10% 2.10% 2.20%
01:30 AUD NAB Business Confidence Jun -3 -2
02:00 CNY Trade Balance (USD) Jun 31.70B 24.00B 18.70B
05:00 JPY Consumer Confidence Household Jun 40.4 40.7 40.7
08:30 GBP Industrial Production M/M May 1.00% -0.20% 0.00% -0.40%
08:30 GBP Industrial Production Y/Y May -1.60% -2.10% -1.00% -2.00%
08:30 GBP Manufacturing Production M/M May 1.20% 0.00% -0.70% -0.80%
08:30 GBP Manufacturing Production Y/Y May -1.70% -1.90% -0.30% -2.00%
08:30 GBP Visible Trade Balance (GBP) May -8.4B -9.0B -10.1B
12:15 CAD Housing Starts Jun 223K 200.0K 211.4K
14:00 GBP NIESR GDP Estimate Jun 0.10%

Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: Although the single currency made another attempt to test the upside, euro ran into fresh offers and has retreated from 1.2334 in European session again due to risk aversion, however, bids from Asian names contained the pair's downside so far. At the moment, bids are still noted at 1.2250-60 and mixtures of bids and stops remain at 1.2225-30 and further out at 1.2190-00 (related to option barrier at 1.2200). On the upside, offers are lowered to 1.2300 and also at 1.2330-35 with sizeable sell orders waiting at 1.2350, some stops are placed above 1.2370 but sizeable stops only emerging above 1.2405-10.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF – Buy at 0.9695

Although dollar has rebounded after intra-day brief fall to 0.9737, above indicated resistance at 0.9825 is needed to confirm recent upmove has resumed and extend gain to 0.9845-50, however, loss of near term momentum would limit upside to 0.9875-80, risk from there is seen for a retreat later.

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Trade Idea: EUR/JPY – Sell at 99.00

As the single currency has remained under pressure after last week’s selloff, adding credence to our view that the correction from 95.59 has ended at 101.63 last month, hence consolidation with downside bias is seen for weakness to 97.00-05, however, a daily close below there is needed to add credence to this view and extend fall to 96.70-75 but reckon said support at 95.59 would hold on first testing, risk from there is seen for a rebound later.

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

 


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