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Daily Report: Risk Stayed Soft after Italy Downgrade, Recovered on China GDP ReliefChina's GDP slowed more than expected to 7.6% yoy in Q2. That's the worst number in three years and compared with Q1's 8.1% yoy. Nonetheless, it's somewhat a relief to markets as the figures was just a touch below expectation of 7.7% and is still above China's 2012 target of 7.5%. Based on the data, the soft-landing scenario is still on track and more monetary and fiscal stimulus would likely be provided to ensure the growth target is met. Other data from China saw industrial production rose less than expected by 9.5% yoy in June, retail sales rose more than expected by 13.7% yoy, fixed assets investment rose more than expected by 20.4%. Dollar and yen are mildly lower as risk markets recover following China's data. But that could likely be due to position adjustment ahead of the weekend only. Current development doesn't warrant a change and trend and we'll likely see more upside in the greenback and yen ahead. But it's so far quite uncertain on which one will be stronger. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
EUR/GBP Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 0.7889; (P) 0.7901; (R1) 0.7921; More. Break of 0.7903 minor resistance indicates that a temporary low is in place at 0.7869 and intraday bias is turned neutral for consolidations. But upside of recovery should be limited by 0.7984 resistance and bring another decline. Below 0.7869 will target 61.8% projection of 0.8505 to 0.7949 from 0.8156 at 0.7812. As noted before, we'll be cautious on reversal signal as the cross approaches key long term fibonacci level at 0.7782. |
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Orders and Options Watch | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
European Session: Orders and Options WatchEUR: Although the single currency recovered in Asian morning in part due to the release of China's GDP data, offers from various parties emerged around 1.2215-20 and more selling interests are reported at 1.2240-50 with stops building up above latter level, followed by mixtures of offers and stops located further rout at 1.2300 as well as 1.2340-50. On the downside, defensive bids are still seen at 1.2150-60 with stops placed below the barrier at 1.2150 but fresh demand from Middle East and Asian sovereign names are tipped further out at 1.212-30 followed by another barrier at 1.2100. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Trade Idea: GBP/USD – Sell at 1.5515Yesterday’s selloff to 1.5393 signals recent decline is still in progress and further weakness towards 1.5360 (1.236 times projection of 1.5778-1.5485 measuring from 1.5722) would be seen, however, loss of near term momentum should prevent sharp fall below 1.5340 and reckon previous support at 1.5322 would hold from here and risk from there is seen for a corrective rebound to take place later. Trade Idea: USD/JPY – Hold long entered at 79.45As dollar has remained under pressure after yesterday’s sharp retreat from 79.97, suggesting caution on our long position entered at 79.45 and indicated support at 79.13 needs to hold to retain bullishness for another rebound later, above 79.75 would bring test of 79.97-00, then last week’s high at 80.10, however, break there is needed to encourage for headway towards 80.40-50 eventually. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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