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Daily Report: Dollar Stabilizes But Vulnerable ahead of Manufacturing DataDollar and yen recover mildly as the week starts but strength is very weak. Markets are calming down from the boost from EU summit. But sentiments are still positive, in particular with expectation of more central bank easing to be announced later this week. BoE is expected to expand its asset purchase target by another GBP 50b while ECB is expected to cut rates by 25bps. While some said that ECB rate cut could be euro negative, we'd like to point out that the risk sentiments lifted by a cut from ECB, and overall market development, would be even more dollar and yen negative. That is, Euro should remain firm against dollar and yen in near term. As for today, a number of important economic data will be released, including PMI data from Swiss, Eurozone, UK and US. The UK manufacturing PMI will be important in determining the direction in EUR/GBP, which has been quite directionless recently. The US ISM manufacturing will have an impact on equities and commodity currencies. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
EUR/GBP Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 0.8010; (P) 0.8052; (R1) 0.8097; More. As noted before, consolidation pattern from 0.7949 is still in progress and more sideway trading could be seen in EUR/GBP. Current recovery from 0.7983 might extend higher but after all, rebound attempt should be limited by 38.2% retracement of 0.8505 to 0.7949 at 0.8161. An eventual downside breakout is still anticipated and below 0.7949 will target next important fibonacci level at 0.7782. |
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Orders and Options Watch | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
European Session: Orders and Options WatchEUR: Although the single currency surged to as high as 1.2693 on Friday after the EU summit, euro slipped today since Asian opening and has continued to trade lower as traders getting cautious on the announced measures, bids at 1.2645-50 were filled and more bids are reported at 1.260-0 as well as 1.2550-60 with stops building up below latter level. On the upside, nearest offers are tipped at 1.2650 and 1.2675-80, followed by mixture of offers and stops located at 1.2695-00 but larger sell orders remain at 1.2740-50 with sizeable stops building up above there. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Trade Idea: GBP/USD – Target met and buy again at 1.5575The British pound found renewed buying interests just around the Kijun-Sen and has surged again from 1.5574 to as high as 1.5710 this morning, our long position entered at 1.5590 on Friday met target at 1.5700 (with 110 points profit), however, as price has retreated from there this morning, suggesting a minor top is formed and consolidation with mild downside bias is seen for retracement to 1.5598 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.5485-1.5710) but renewed buying interests should emerge around 1.5571-74 Trade Idea: USD/JPY – Hold long entered at 79.45Although the greenback staged a rebound from last week’s low of 79.13 to 79.98 both on Friday and today, as price has retreated after faltering below psychological resistance at 80.00, suggesting further consolidation would be seen, however, reckon the Ichimoku cloud bottom (now at 79.36) would hold and bring another rebound later. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Fundamental Highlights
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