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Daily Report: Yen Volatile as BoJ Tweak Stimulus, Aussie Lower after Job DataMuch volatility was seen in the Japanese yen in Asia today on BoJ's announcement. The central bank unexpectedly increased the size of the asset purchase program by JPY 5T to JPY 45T. However, the size of the fixed rate loan program was reduced by JPY 5T to JPY 25T. That is effectively, the total size of the stimulus program was kept at JPY 70T with just some slight tweaking. The bank also voted unanimously to keep overnight rate unchanged at 0-0.1% range. Regarding inflation, BoJ forecasts inflation to rise to 0.7% in the fiscal year starting 2013, that is, it will stay below its 1% target at least through early 2014. Regarding the economy, BoJ lowered GDP growth forecast this fiscal year to 2.2%, down from prior projection of 2.3%. Separately, Bank of Korea lowered its benchmark borrowing rate by 25bps to 3.00%, the first cut since 2009. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
USD/JPY Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 79.32; (P) 79.55; (R1) 79.98; More... USD/JPY's fall was contained by 79.13 support and recovered strongly. Near term outlook remains mixed and intraday bias is turned neutral first. ON the upside, above 80.09 will likely extend the rebound from 77.66 through 80.61 towards 61.8% retracement of 84.17 to 77.66 at 81.68 and above. On the downside, though, below 79.13 will indicate that rebound from 77.66 is finished and should send USD/JPY through 78.60 to retest 77.66 first. |
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Orders and Options Watch | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
European Session: Orders and Options WatchJPY: Although the greenback shot up against the Japanese yen shortly after BOJ announcement to keep rate unchanged, the pair ran into heavy offers ahead of psychological resistance at 80.00 and has retreated sharply from 79.97, bids at 79.50 were filled but more buying interests (talk of semi-official names) are reported from 79.30 all the way down to 79.00 with stops building up below barrier at 79.00 and 78.00 (large). On the upside, offers from exporters and U.S. names remain at 79.60, 79.75 and also quite thick in the region of 79.95-80.10 with stops remain above 80.15-20. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Trade Idea: GBP/USD – Sell at 1.5525Despite yesterday’s cross-inspired rebound to 1.5578, the subsequent selloff signals the rebound from last week’s low of 1.5461 has ended there and retest of this level would be seen, break there would extend weakness to 1.5448 (50% projection of 1.5722-1.5461 measuring from 1.5578), then 1.5417 (61.8% projection) but reckon previous minor support at 1.5404 would hold on first testing and risk from there is seen for a correction later. Trade Idea: USD/CHF – Buy at 0.9695Although the greenback has continued to edge higher on dollar’s broad-based strength against European currencies and recent upmove may extend gain to 0.9845-50, loss of near term upward momentum should prevent sharp move beyond 0.9875-80 and reckon 0.9900 would hold from here, risk from there is seen for a retreat later. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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