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Mid-Day Report: Dollar Plummets after NFP, EUR/CHF Jumps on SNB RumorDollar is sharply lower in early US session, in particular against the Japanese yen, after release of weaker than expected NFP number. The data showed US job market grew 96k in August, comparing to expectation of 127k. Prior month's figure was also revised down from 163k to 141K. Unemployment rate, though, improved to 8.1%, thanks to the fact that 368k of Americans left the labor market. On the other hand, the Canadian dollar was boosted by stronger than expected job market data which showed 34.3k growth in August comparing to expectation of 11k. Unemployment rate in Canada was unchanged at 7.3% as expected. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
USD/CHF Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 0.9503; (P) 0.9550; (R1) 0.9582; More... USD/CHF's fall resumed by taking out 0.9502 and reaches as ow as 0.9473 so far in early US session. Intraday bias is back on the downside and further decline should be seen to 0.9420 key support level next. Break will have further bearish implications and would pave the way to 0.9 psychological level and below. On the upside, break of 0.9607 resistance is needed to signal short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish even in case of recovery. |
| Special Reports |
ECB Unveils More Details about Outright Monetary TransactionsECB leaves main refinancing rate unchanged at 0.75%, compared with our expectation of a rate cut of -25 bps. Policymakers believed that this is not an appropriate time to lower interests as economic weakness had been anticipated. Meanwhile, President Draghi stated at the press conference that officials have basically agreed on unlimited bond purchase program. Despite objected by a member, the program is expected to be able to help "address severe distortions in government bond markets which originate from, in particular, unfounded fears on the part of investors of the reversibility of the euro". According to Draghi, purchases would be fully sterilized, suggesting that the program would not trigger inflation pressure. The ECB also affirmed that purchases would not have seniority. |
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Orders and Options Watch | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
US Session: Orders and Options WatchEUR: The single currency rallied today and the release of weaker-than-expected U.S. job data gave extra energy to the pair, barriers at 1.2700 and 1.2750 were cleared, some offers at 1.2760-70 (related to 50% retracement of 1.3487-1.2042) were also filled, however, some selling interests for profit taking ahead of weekend are tipped further out at 1.2790-00 with mixtures of offers and stops located at 1.2810-20 and 1.2850. On the downside, bids from various parties are located at 1.2700-10 and also at 1.2670 with combination of bids and stops located at 1.2640-50 but sizeable stops only emerging below 1.2620 and 1.2600. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD – Buy at 1.2695As euro’s intra-day rise has gathered momentum after the release of soft U.S. job data, suggesting recent upmove is still in progress for a stronger retracement of early downtrend and gain to 1.2800-10, then 1.2835-40 would be seen, however, near term overbought condition should limit upside to 1.2890-95 (1.618 times projection of 1.2042-1.2444 measuring from 1.2242) and reckon 1.2950 would hold from here. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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