Friday, September 14, 2012

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 9-14-12 (trusted: contact@actionforex.com)

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Dollar Selloff Continues, Yen Even Weaker

Dollar remains weak across the board as post-FOMC selling continues today. But the Japanese yen is even weaker, as see with USD/JPY rebounding back above 78 level. Less than a day after USD/JPY dropped to the lowest level in more than six months, Japanese Finance Minister said that Yen's rally was "one-sided" and was clearly out of line iwth the country's eocnomy. Azumi warned that such movement can't be overlooked" and pledged to " take decisive steps when it is deemed necessary". Azumi also urged BoJ to "take appropriate steps at the appropriate time" to acheive the so called 1% inflation goal. BoJ will meet next week and markets could probably be jumping ahead.

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Featured Technical Report

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2894; (P) 1.2947 (R1) 1.3041; More.....

EUR/USD's rally accelerates further after breaking 1.3 psychological level. Intraday bias remains on the upside for 38.2% retracement of 1.4939 to 1.2042 at 1.3149. Break will target 1.3486 key resistance, which is also close to 50% retracement. On the downside, break of 1.2855 minor support is needed to signal short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish even in case of retreat.

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Special Report

Fed Announces QE3, Extends Operation Twist And Delays First Rate Hike To Mid-2015

The Fed announced additional quantitative easing measures, together with extension of operation twist and change in the interest rate guidance, in September as the pace of US economic recovery has been sluggish so far. The Fed expressed its concerns about the downside risks to the economy, the long-term unemployment, the possibility that inflation would stay below its target over the medium-term. Investors responded positively to the long-awaited QE3 sending the DJIA and the S&P 500 indices +1.55% and +1.63% higher.

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Economic Indicators Update

GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
04:30 JPY Industrial Production M/M Jul F -1.00% -1.20%
09:00 EUR Eurozone CPI M/M Aug 0.40% 0.40% -0.50%
09:00 EUR Eurozone CPI Y/Y Aug 2.60% 2.60%
09:00 EUR Eurozone CPI - Core Y/Y Aug 1.50% 1.70% 1.70%
09:00 EUR Eurozone Employment Q/Q Q2 0.00% -0.20%
12:30 CAD Manufacturing Shipments M/M Jul -1.50% 0.60% -0.40%
12:30 USD CPI M/M Aug 0.60% 0.50% 0.00%
12:30 USD CPI Y/Y Aug 1.70% 1.60% 1.40%
12:30 USD CPI Core M/M Aug 0.10% 0.20% 0.10%
12:30 USD CPI Core Y/Y Aug 1.90% 2.00% 2.10%
12:30 USD Advance Retail Sales Aug 0.90% 0.70% 0.80%
12:30 USD Retail Sales Less Autos Aug 0.80% 0.60% 0.80%
13:15 USD Industrial Production Aug -1.20% 0.10% 0.60%
13:15 USD Capacity Utilization Aug 78.20% 79.30% 79.30%
13:55 USD U. of Michigan Confidence Sep P 79.2 74 74.3
14:00 USD Business Inventories Jul 0.80% 0.30% 0.10%
   

Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency continued to head north throughout the day on dollar's broad-based selloff and barriers at 1.3050 and 1.3100 together with buy stop orders above there were tripped without much obstacles. At the moment, not much orders left on the upside, only some light offers around 1.3150, 1.3180 and 1.3200 (another barrier). On the downside, bids from various parties are lined up from 1.3090 down to 1.3050 with some stops tipped below 1.3020 and 1.3000 but fresh demand should emerge from 1.2980 down to 1.2950 with more stops building up below 1.2930 and 1.2900.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD – Buy at 1.6150

Despite yesterday’s brief retreat to 1.6071, renewed buying interests quickly emerged there and cable has rallied from there on dollar’s broad-based weakness after QE3, suggesting recent upmove is still in progress and further gain to 1.6255-60 and possibly 1.6280 would be seen, however, near term overbought condition should limit upside to 1.6300-10 and price should falter below 1.6330-40, risk from there is seen for another retreat later.

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Trade Idea: EUR/JPY – Buy at 100.50

As the single currency has rallied again after yesterday’s brief retreat to 99.63, suggesting recent upmove is still in progress and further gain to 101.40-50 resistance would be seen, break there would encourage for recent rise to 94.12 low to bring a stronger correction of early decline to 102.00, then towards 102.40-50 which is likely to hold from here due to near term overbought condition.

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

 

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