Wednesday, September 19, 2012

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 9-19-12 (trusted: contact@actionforex.com)

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Euro Dips on Banking Union News, Sterling Weighed Down by BoE Minutes

European majors retreated deeper today on reports that Germany is insisting that banking supervision and monetary policy must be separated in EU. That is, ECB shouldn't be the bank supervisor, but rather, Germany is pushing for an independent body which larger countries could have more votes in the supervisory authority. The news highlighted that there are still lots of divergence in opinion regarding banking supervision in Europe, in addition to worries that ECB's role as a supervisor could affect non-Eurozone banks. Nonetheless, French finance minister Moscovici played down these news and said that leaders are "discussions on the timing of things and on the scale of the approach but it is reductivist to characterise this as some kind of clash". Moscovici emphasized there is "room for an accord". EUR/USD retreats further from this week's high of 1.3171 but stays firm above 1.3 psychological level.

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Featured Technical Report

GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6220; (P) 1.6244; (R1) 1.6267; More...

Touching of 1.6185 minor support suggest that a temporary top is in place in GBP/USD and intraday bias is turned neutral. Deeper retreat might be seen to 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 1.6126). But near term outlook will stay bullish as long as 1.5912 resistance turned support holds and another rise will remain in favor. Decisive break of 1.6300 key resistance level will larger bullish implication and would target 1.6618/6746 resistance zone next.

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Special Reports

BOE Minutes Signaled Members Favored Further Easing

The September BOE minutes unveiled that the MPC members voted unanimously to leave the Bank rate unchanged at 0.5% and the asset purchase program at 375B pound. While policymakers noted that inflation had been coming down more slowly than anticipated, the central bank should not be refrained from expanding the size of asset purchases as the pace of economic recovery remained subdued. We retain the view that the BOE would increase the quantity of program by another 50B pound in as soon as next month.

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BOJ Speeds Up Easing, Expands Asset Purchases After ECB And FED

The BOJ accelerated the pace of monetary easing by doubling the size of asset purchases, in addition to leaving the uncollateralized overnight call rate at around 0 to 0.1%. Slowdown in global economic growth and recent tensions between China and Japan over territorial dispute are expected to delay Japan’s recovery as exports growth would be affected. According to the central bank, the move is expected to 'help ensure that Japan's economy resumes a sustainable growth path with price stability'. The move came in earlier than market expectations, sending Japanese yen lower, and Nikkei stock index and cash bonds higher.

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Economic Indicators Update

GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
22:45 NZD Current Account Balance Q2 -1.797B -1.620B -1.310B -1.072B
00:30 AUD Westpac Leading Index M/M Jul 0.40% 0.50%
03:30 JPY BoJ Rate Decision 0.10% 0.10% 0.10%
08:30 GBP BoE Minutes 0--0--9 0--0--9 0--0--9
09:00 CHF ZEW (Expectations) Sep -34.9 -33.3
12:30 USD Housing Starts Aug 750K 765K 746K
12:30 USD Building Permits Aug 803K 795K 812K
14:00 USD Existing Home Sales Aug 4.82M 4.56M 4.47M
14:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories 0.2M 2.0M
   

Orders and Options Watch

European Session: Orders and Options Watch

JPY: The greenback surged this morning in Tokyo after BOJ raised QE by 10 trillion yen and confirmed concerns over yen’s strength, offers and stops at 79.00-10 were cleared, however, offers from exporters are still noted at 79.30-40 and also around 79.60-70 with stops building up above 79.70 followed by mixture of offers and stops located further out at 79.95-05. On the downside, bids from Japanese investors are raised to 78.85-90 and also at 78.45-55 with stops placed below 78.40 but fresh demand from semi-official names should emerge around 78.00-10 with more bids reported at 77.70-80 and also at 77.50.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD – Hold long entered at 1.2995

Although the single currency slipped to an intra-day low of 1.2994 (just reached our indicated retracement level at 1.2995 - 50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.2817-1.3172), as this move from 1.3172 is still viewed as retracement of recent upmove, downside should be limited and bring rebound later, above the Ichimoku cloud (now at 1.3095-97 and this would break intra-day high of 1.3085) would signal the pullback from 1.3172 has ended and bring further gain to 1.3120-25

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Trade Idea: AUD/USD – Sell at 1.0550

Although aussie has recovered after holding above yesterday’s low at 1.0410 and consolidation with mild upside bias is seen, as temporary top has been formed at 1.0625, upside should be limited to 1.0550 and bring another fall, break of said support would bring a deeper correction of the rise from 1.0167 to 1.0390 and possibly 1.0350, however, reckon support at 1.0323 (last week’s low) would limit downside and renewed buying interests may emerge there and bring another rise.

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

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